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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Gabriel Bonfim won · SUB R1

Elo1565

Elo1496

Gabriel BonfimvsMounir LazzezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Saturday, January 21, 2023Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Official fight result

Gabriel Bonfim won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:49

Style matchupGabriel Bonfim: WrestlervsMounir Lazzez: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Gabriel Bonfim wins(56.8%)

Actual result: Gabriel Bonfim wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Bonfim at -175 American odds

+$57 profit

$157 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Bonfim enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Gabriel Bonfim threatens submissions; Mounir Lazzez has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Gabriel Bonfim has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Mounir Lazzez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Bonfim

Red Corner

Mounir Lazzez

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+150

(40%)

1565

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

182.88 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel BonfimW5 streak

oldest →

vs Ange Loosa · Jul 24

SUBvs Khaos Williams · Feb 25

vs Stephen Thompson · Jul 25

KOvs Randy Brown · Nov 25

DECvs Belal Muhammad · Jun 26

latest

Mounir Lazzez

oldest →

vs Abdul Razak Alhassan · Jul 20

KOvs Warlley Alves · Jan 21

vs Ange Loosa · Apr 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel BonfimMetricMounir Lazzez

4.61

Strikes / min

7.49

3.68

Strikes absorbed / min

5.42

63%

Strike defense

53%

3.60

TDs / 15 min

1.80

76%

Takedown defense

71%

1.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.93Δ 1.14 — meaningful gap+2.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gabriel BonfimMounir Lazzez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gabriel Bonfim(8 fights)Mounir Lazzez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +69.4|Blue -69.4

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +49.5|Blue -49.5

Grappler Score

Red +49.6|Blue -49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel BonfimTargetMounir Lazzez

By target zone

33% acc · 67%

Head

0% acc

100% acc · 22%

Body

100% acc · 44%

50% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 56%

By position

41% acc · 100%

Distance

69% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gabriel Bonfim rounds

even

Mounir Lazzez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:04

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 22

Sig Strikes

9 / 13

40%

Sig Str %

69%

9 / 22

Total Strikes

9 / 13

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:04

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mounir Lazzez	9 / 13	9 / 13	0 / 1	0
1	Gabriel Bonfim	9 / 22	9 / 22	0 / 0	1

Gabriel Bonfim

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8

Mounir Lazzez

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights4