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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Gabriel Benitez won · KO/TKO
Elo1493
Gabriel Benitez
Elo1403

Gabriel BenitezvsJustin JaynesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Saturday, December 5, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gabriel Benitez won

KO/TKO

Model Prediction: Gabriel Benitez wins(50.7%)

Actual result: Gabriel Benitez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Benitez at -215 American odds

+$47 profit

$147 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Justin Jaynes is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Gabriel Benitez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Gabriel Benitez has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Gabriel Benitez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Benitez
Red Corner
VS
Justin Jaynes
Blue Corner
-215
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1493
Elo
1403
38
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'7"
180.34 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel BenitezL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Jul 21
L
KOvs David Onama · Feb 22
W
KOvs Charlie Ontiveros · Aug 22
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 24
L
vs Maheshate · Apr 24
latest
Justin JaynesL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Frank Camacho · Jun 20
L
SUBvs Gavin Tucker · Aug 20
L
vs Charles Rosa · Jun 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel BenitezMetricJustin Jaynes
5.26
Strikes / min
3.34
4.49
Strikes absorbed / min
5.33
63%
Strike defense
62%
0.22
TDs / 15 min
0.75
55%
Takedown defense
20%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.77Δ 2.76 — meaningful gap-1.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1509 vs 1502Strikes4.1 vs 4.6Takedowns0.2 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.20 vs 1.20Form-0.7 vs -0.1
Gabriel BenitezJustin Jaynes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Gabriel Benitez(10 fights)Justin Jaynes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +90.5|Blue -90.5
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Layoff
Red +87.0|Blue -87.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel BenitezTargetJustin Jaynes

By target zone

20
24% acc · 53%
Head
16
36% acc · 73%
10
83% acc · 26%
Body
6
75% acc · 27%
8
89% acc · 21%
Leg
0

By position

34
34% acc · 89%
Distance
22
42% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
4
80% acc · 11%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Gabriel Benitez rounds
0
even
0
Justin Jaynes rounds
Round 1Gabriel Benitez edged it
Sig. strikes38
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns1
22Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
38 / 104
Sig Strikes
22 / 52
36%
Sig Str %
42%
38 / 104
Total Strikes
22 / 52
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Justin Jaynes22 / 5222 / 520 / 00
1Gabriel Benitez38 / 10438 / 1040 / 00

Gabriel Benitez

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights15

Justin Jaynes

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4