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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Gabriel Benitez won · U-DEC R3

Elo1493

Elo1355

Gabriel BenitezvsClay CollardUFC Prediction Result

UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · Saturday, June 13, 2015Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Gabriel Benitez won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupGabriel Benitez: Pressure fightervsClay Collard: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Clay Collard wins(53.2%)

Actual result: Gabriel Benitez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Clay Collard at -255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Benitez has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Clay Collard has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Gabriel Benitez (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Benitez

Red Corner

Clay Collard

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1493

Elo

1355

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel BenitezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Jul 21

KOvs David Onama · Feb 22

KOvs Charlie Ontiveros · Aug 22

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 24

vs Maheshate · Apr 24

latest

Clay Collard

oldest →

KOvs Max Holloway · Aug 14

vs Alex White · Dec 14

DECvs Tiago Trator · Sep 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel BenitezMetricClay Collard

5.26

Strikes / min

4.22

4.49

Strikes absorbed / min

5.00

63%

Strike defense

50%

0.22

TDs / 15 min

2.81

55%

Takedown defense

71%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77Δ 1.55 — meaningful gap-0.78

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gabriel BenitezClay Collard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gabriel Benitez(10 fights)Clay Collard(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +137.8|Blue -137.8

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -2.2|Blue +2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +21.0|Blue -21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel BenitezTargetClay Collard

By target zone

27% acc · 22%

Head

13% acc · 50%

81% acc · 50%

Body

63% acc · 15%

81% acc · 28%

Leg

86% acc · 35%

By position

56% acc · 92%

Distance

20% acc · 88%

50% acc · 2%

Clinch

75% acc · 9%

80% acc · 7%

Ground

33% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gabriel Benitez rounds

even

Clay Collard rounds

Round 1Clay Collard edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:11

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:21Control

Round 2Gabriel Benitez edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:46

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:43Control

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 106

Sig Strikes

34 / 158

56.7%

Sig Str %

21%

97 / 144

Total Strikes

54 / 184

0 / 0

TDs

6 / 11

—

TD %

57.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

4:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Clay Collard	15 / 50	20 / 56	1 / 3	0
1	Gabriel Benitez	19 / 36	24 / 41	0 / 0	1
2	Clay Collard	13 / 62	16 / 65	3 / 3	0
2	Gabriel Benitez	26 / 46	36 / 56	0 / 0	0
3	Clay Collard	6 / 46	18 / 63	2 / 5	0
3	Gabriel Benitez	15 / 24	37 / 47	0 / 0	0

Gabriel Benitez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

Clay Collard

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4