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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Gabriel Benitez won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1493

Elo1431

Gabriel BenitezvsCharlie OntiverosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Cruz · Saturday, August 13, 2022San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Gabriel Benitez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:33

Model Prediction: Gabriel Benitez wins(62.8%)

Actual result: Gabriel Benitez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gabriel Benitez at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gabriel Benitez enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Gabriel Benitez has 32pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Gabriel Benitez has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Charlie Ontiveros (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Gabriel Benitez

Red Corner

Charlie Ontiveros

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1493

Elo

1431

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

6'2"

180.34 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabriel BenitezL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Justin Jaynes · Dec 20

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Jul 21

KOvs David Onama · Feb 22

SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 24

vs Maheshate · Apr 24

latest

Charlie OntiverosL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kevin Holland · Oct 20

KOvs Steve Garcia · Oct 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabriel BenitezMetricCharlie Ontiveros

5.26

Strikes / min

1.89

4.49

Strikes absorbed / min

5.86

63%

Strike defense

31%

0.22

TDs / 15 min

0.00

55%

Takedown defense

30%

0.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77Δ 4.74 — meaningful gap-3.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Gabriel BenitezCharlie Ontiveros

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Gabriel Benitez(10 fights)Charlie Ontiveros(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +61.9|Blue -61.9

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabriel BenitezTargetCharlie Ontiveros

By target zone

57% acc · 70%

Head

43% acc · 77%

75% acc · 16%

Body

67% acc · 18%

83% acc · 14%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

54% acc · 38%

Distance

47% acc · 95%

50% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

70% acc · 57%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Gabriel Benitez rounds

even

Charlie Ontiveros rounds

Round 1Gabriel Benitez edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control1:24

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 60

Sig Strikes

22 / 47

61%

Sig Str %

46%

47 / 74

Total Strikes

28 / 55

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:24

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charlie Ontiveros	22 / 47	28 / 55	0 / 0	0
1	Gabriel Benitez	37 / 60	47 / 74	1 / 2	0

Gabriel Benitez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15

Charlie Ontiveros

StanceSwitch

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3