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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Gabe Green won · SUB R2
Elo1505
Elo1534
Matheus Camilo editorial illustration

Gabe GreenvsMatheus CamiloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · Saturday, May 17, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gabe Green won

SUB · Round 2 · 3:43

Style matchupGabe Green: Pressure fightervsMatheus Camilo: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Matheus Camilo wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Gabe Green wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Matheus Camilo at -188 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Matheus Camilo has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Gabe Green has 50pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Gabe Green (52.9%).
  • Gabe Green has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Gabe Green
Red Corner
VS
Matheus Camilo
Blue Corner
+158
(39%)
Vegas Odds
-188
(65%)
1505
Elo
1534
33
Age
25
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Gabe GreenL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Daniel Rodriguez · May 20
W
vs Philip Rowe · Feb 21
W
KOvs Yohan Lainesse · Apr 22
L
vs Ian Garry · Jul 22
L
KOvs Bryan Battle · May 23
latest
Matheus CamiloW2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Nov 25
W
KOvs Nazim Sadykhov · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Gabe GreenMetricMatheus Camilo
5.60
Strikes / min
2.19
6.19
Strikes absorbed / min
3.25
47%
Strike defense
64%
0.71
TDs / 15 min
4.43
50%
Takedown defense
0%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.59evenly matched on net striking-1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1486 vs 1500Strikes5.6 vs 2.2Takedowns0.7 vs 4.4Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.60Form-0.5 vs 0.0
Gabe GreenMatheus Camilo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701490151015301550← oldermost recent →
Gabe Green(6 fights)Matheus Camilo(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -29.0|Blue +29.0
Recent Form
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Striker Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Gabe GreenTargetMatheus Camilo

By target zone

4
25% acc · 33%
Head
6
38% acc · 46%
3
75% acc · 25%
Body
4
67% acc · 31%
5
71% acc · 42%
Leg
3
60% acc · 23%

By position

10
40% acc · 83%
Distance
12
50% acc · 92%
1
100% acc · 8%
Clinch
0
0% acc
1
100% acc · 8%
Ground
1
50% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Gabe Green rounds
0
even
1
Matheus Camilo rounds
Round 1Matheus Camilo edged it
Sig. strikes7
Takedowns0
Control0:09
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:26Control
Round 2Gabe Green edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns0
Control2:03
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:04Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
12 / 27
Sig Strikes
13 / 27
46.5%
Sig Str %
41.5%
36 / 57
Total Strikes
33 / 48
0 / 0
TDs
2 / 3
—
TD %
75%
1
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
2:12
Ctrl Time
2:30

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Matheus Camilo12 / 2430 / 431 / 20
1Gabe Green7 / 1817 / 300 / 00
2Matheus Camilo1 / 33 / 51 / 11
2Gabe Green5 / 919 / 270 / 01

Gabe Green

StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights6

Matheus Camilo

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights3