Featherweight

3 Rounds

Pablo Garza won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1490

Fredson PaixaovsPablo GarzaUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · Saturday, December 4, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Pablo Garza won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:51

Model Prediction: Pablo Garza wins(52.7%)

Actual result: Pablo Garza wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Pablo Garza at +165 American odds

+$165 profit

$265 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Fredson Paixao has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Pablo Garza has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Fredson Paixao

Red Corner

Pablo Garza

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

6'1"

167.64 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Fredson PaixaoNo prior UFC fights on record.

Pablo Garza

oldest →

SUBvs Yves Jabouin · Apr 11

SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Nov 11

vs Dennis Bermudez · May 12

vs Mark Hominick · Nov 12

SUBvs Diego Brandao · Apr 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Fredson PaixaoMetricPablo Garza

1.71

Strikes / min

3.37

2.31

Strikes absorbed / min

2.70

62%

Strike defense

50%

0.62

TDs / 15 min

0.94

10%

Takedown defense

15%

2.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.60Δ 1.27 — meaningful gap+0.67

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Fredson Paixao(1 fights)Pablo Garza(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Fredson PaixaoTargetPablo Garza

By target zone

Head

33% acc · 67%

Body

100% acc · 100%

Leg

100% acc · 33%

By position

100% acc · 100%

Distance

33% acc · 67%

Clinch

Ground

100% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Fredson Paixao rounds

even

Pablo Garza rounds

Round 1Pablo Garza edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 1

Sig Strikes

3 / 7

100%

Sig Str %

42%

1 / 1

Total Strikes

3 / 7

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Pablo Garza	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	0
1	Fredson Paixao	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0

Fredson Paixao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights1

Pablo Garza

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights6