Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Frankie Saenz won · S-DEC R3

Elo1387

Elo1490

Frankie SaenzvsSirwan KakaiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · Saturday, August 8, 2015Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Frankie Saenz won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrankie Saenz: Well-roundedvsSirwan Kakai: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Frankie Saenz wins(80.7%)

Actual result: Frankie Saenz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Saenz at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sirwan Kakai has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sirwan Kakai has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Saenz

Red Corner

Sirwan Kakai

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1387

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

167.64 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie SaenzL2 streak

oldest →

vs Augusto Mendes · Jan 17

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 17

vs Henry Briones · May 18

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 19

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Aug 20

latest

Sirwan Kakai

oldest →

vs Danny Martinez · Jun 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie SaenzMetricSirwan Kakai

3.94

Strikes / min

3.57

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

4.63

52%

Strike defense

62%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

4.00

61%

Takedown defense

83%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44Δ 1.50 — meaningful gap-1.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie SaenzSirwan Kakai

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Saenz(10 fights)Sirwan Kakai(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -103.3|Blue +103.3

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +125.0|Blue -125.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie SaenzTargetSirwan Kakai

By target zone

34% acc · 60%

Head

35% acc · 53%

72% acc · 29%

Body

81% acc · 24%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

87% acc · 24%

By position

35% acc · 56%

Distance

47% acc · 85%

63% acc · 39%

Clinch

62% acc · 15%

67% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Saenz rounds

even

Sirwan Kakai rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:05

19Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:00Control

Round 2Frankie Saenz edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:11

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Frankie Saenz edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control2:25

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

80 / 183

Sig Strikes

55 / 113

44.7%

Sig Str %

49%

91 / 195

Total Strikes

62 / 121

1 / 6

TDs

3 / 9

11%

TD %

46.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:41

Ctrl Time

1:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sirwan Kakai	19 / 31	21 / 33	2 / 5	0
1	Frankie Saenz	26 / 57	30 / 61	0 / 1	0
2	Sirwan Kakai	24 / 52	24 / 52	1 / 1	0
2	Frankie Saenz	30 / 80	31 / 81	0 / 2	0
3	Sirwan Kakai	12 / 30	17 / 36	0 / 3	0
3	Frankie Saenz	24 / 46	30 / 53	1 / 3	1

Frankie Saenz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10

Sirwan Kakai

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach—

Fights2