← All fights/Event page

Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Frankie Saenz won · S-DEC R3

Elo1387

Elo1542

Frankie SaenzvsMerab DvalishviliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · Saturday, December 9, 2017Fresno, California, USA

Official fight result

Frankie Saenz won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrankie Saenz: Well-roundedvsMerab Dvalishvili: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Frankie Saenz wins(68.4%)

Actual result: Frankie Saenz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Saenz at +165 American odds

+$165 profit

$265 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Merab Dvalishvili has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Saenz

Red Corner

Merab Dvalishvili

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1387

Elo

1542

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie SaenzL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jul 16

vs Augusto Mendes · Jan 17

vs Henry Briones · May 18

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 19

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Aug 20

latest

Merab Dvalishvili

oldest →

vs Sean O'Malley · Sep 24

vs Umar Nurmagomedov · Jan 25

SUBvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 25

vs Cory Sandhagen · Oct 25

vs Petr Yan · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie SaenzMetricMerab Dvalishvili

3.94

Strikes / min

4.42

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

2.80

52%

Strike defense

54%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

5.97

61%

Takedown defense

76%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap+1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie SaenzMerab Dvalishvili

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Saenz(10 fights)Merab Dvalishvili(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -155.4|Blue +155.4

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -46.7|Blue +46.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie SaenzTargetMerab Dvalishvili

By target zone

35% acc · 38%

Head

35% acc · 72%

84% acc · 53%

Body

63% acc · 21%

83% acc · 9%

Leg

75% acc · 6%

By position

37% acc · 38%

Distance

29% acc · 51%

76% acc · 59%

Clinch

66% acc · 45%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Saenz rounds

even

Merab Dvalishvili rounds

Round 1Frankie Saenz edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:10Control

Round 2Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:05

29Sig. strikes

4Takedowns

2:24Control

Round 3Merab Dvalishvili edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:14

11Sig. strikes

5Takedowns

2:12Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 106

Sig Strikes

47 / 118

57%

Sig Str %

37.3%

66 / 115

Total Strikes

104 / 180

0 / 3

TDs

11 / 23

TD %

52.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

7:46

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Merab Dvalishvili	7 / 34	39 / 67	2 / 9
1	Frankie Saenz	24 / 28	25 / 29	0 / 1
2	Merab Dvalishvili	29 / 58	39 / 69	4 / 5
2	Frankie Saenz	17 / 38	17 / 38	0 / 2
3	Merab Dvalishvili	11 / 26	26 / 44	5 / 9
3	Frankie Saenz	17 / 40	24 / 48	0 / 0

Frankie Saenz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10

Merab Dvalishvili

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights17