Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Jonathan Martinez won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1387

Elo1504

Frankie SaenzvsJonathan MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Saturday, August 1, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jonathan Martinez won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:57

Style matchupFrankie Saenz: Well-roundedvsJonathan Martinez: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Jonathan Martinez wins(52.1%)

Actual result: Jonathan Martinez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jonathan Martinez at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Jonathan Martinez (53.5%).
Jonathan Martinez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Saenz

Red Corner

Jonathan Martinez

Blue Corner

+200

(33%)

Vegas Odds

-250

(71%)

1387

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'6"

Height

5'8"

167.64 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie Saenz

oldest →

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jul 16

vs Augusto Mendes · Jan 17

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 17

vs Henry Briones · May 18

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 19

latest

Jonathan MartinezL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cub Swanson · Oct 22

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Mar 23

KOvs Adrian Yanez · Oct 23

vs Jose Aldo · May 24

vs Marcus McGhee · Nov 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie SaenzMetricJonathan Martinez

3.94

Strikes / min

4.44

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

52%

Strike defense

56%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

0.38

61%

Takedown defense

68%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44evenly matched on net striking+0.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie SaenzJonathan Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Saenz(10 fights)Jonathan Martinez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -117.0|Blue +117.0

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +322.0|Blue -322.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie SaenzTargetJonathan Martinez

By target zone

28% acc · 31%

Head

53% acc · 61%

80% acc · 21%

Body

70% acc · 35%

100% acc · 49%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

48% acc · 77%

Distance

53% acc · 72%

100% acc · 23%

Clinch

75% acc · 4%

Ground

86% acc · 24%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Saenz rounds

even

Jonathan Martinez rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control1:10

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Jonathan Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

52Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:43Control

2Knockdowns

Round 3Jonathan Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 72

Sig Strikes

79 / 133

56%

Sig Str %

54.7%

52 / 85

Total Strikes

88 / 143

1 / 4

TDs

1 / 1

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

1:10

Ctrl Time

0:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jonathan Martinez	22 / 47	26 / 52	0 / 0
1	Frankie Saenz	18 / 31	30 / 43	1 / 2
2	Jonathan Martinez	52 / 76	57 / 81	1 / 1
2	Frankie Saenz	16 / 33	16 / 33	0 / 2
3	Jonathan Martinez	5 / 10	5 / 10	0 / 0
3	Frankie Saenz	5 / 8	6 / 9	0 / 0

Frankie Saenz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10

Jonathan Martinez

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15