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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Eddie Wineland won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1387

Elo1427

Frankie SaenzvsEddie WinelandUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · Saturday, July 23, 2016Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Eddie Wineland won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:54

Style matchupFrankie Saenz: Well-roundedvsEddie Wineland: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Frankie Saenz wins(70.4%)

Actual result: Eddie Wineland wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Saenz at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Eddie Wineland is a KO finisher (83% of wins). Frankie Saenz has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Eddie Wineland has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Eddie Wineland has 25pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Saenz

Red Corner

Eddie Wineland

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1387

Elo

1427

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'7"

167.64 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie SaenzL2 streak

oldest →

vs Augusto Mendes · Jan 17

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 17

vs Henry Briones · May 18

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 19

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Aug 20

latest

Eddie WinelandL3 streak

oldest →

vs Alejandro Perez · Jul 18

KOvs Grigorii Popov · Jun 19

KOvs Sean O'Malley · Jun 20

KOvs John Castaneda · Feb 21

KOvs Cody Stamann · Jun 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie SaenzMetricEddie Wineland

3.94

Strikes / min

3.40

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.76

52%

Strike defense

68%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

0.34

61%

Takedown defense

86%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44evenly matched on net striking-0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie SaenzEddie Wineland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Saenz(10 fights)Eddie Wineland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.4|Blue +40.4

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -140.0|Blue +140.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie SaenzTargetEddie Wineland

By target zone

33% acc · 60%

Head

29% acc · 83%

14% acc · 4%

Body

70% acc · 17%

80% acc · 36%

Leg

By position

38% acc · 96%

Distance

31% acc · 90%

Clinch

50% acc · 2%

67% acc · 4%

Ground

75% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Saenz rounds

even

Eddie Wineland rounds

Round 1Frankie Saenz edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns1

Control1:21

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Frankie Saenz edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Eddie Wineland edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 116

Sig Strikes

42 / 129

37.7%

Sig Str %

34%

59 / 132

Total Strikes

52 / 139

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

33.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:21

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Eddie Wineland	12 / 40	21 / 49	0 / 1
1	Frankie Saenz	17 / 33	31 / 49	1 / 1
2	Eddie Wineland	15 / 57	15 / 57	0 / 0
2	Frankie Saenz	22 / 59	22 / 59	0 / 2
3	Eddie Wineland	15 / 32	16 / 33	0 / 0
3	Frankie Saenz	6 / 24	6 / 24	0 / 1

Frankie Saenz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10

Eddie Wineland

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights16