Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Augusto Mendes won · S-DEC R3

Elo1387

Elo1491

Frankie SaenzvsAugusto MendesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · Sunday, January 15, 2017Phoenix, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Augusto Mendes won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Frankie Saenz wins(68.5%)

Actual result: Augusto Mendes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Saenz at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Augusto Mendes has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Saenz

Red Corner

Augusto Mendes

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1387

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

167.64 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie SaenzL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Eddie Wineland · Jul 16

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Dec 17

vs Henry Briones · May 18

KOvs Marlon Vera · Mar 19

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Aug 20

latest

Augusto MendesL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Cody Garbrandt · Feb 16

vs Aljamain Sterling · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie SaenzMetricAugusto Mendes

3.94

Strikes / min

2.42

3.50

Strikes absorbed / min

3.91

52%

Strike defense

56%

1.74

TDs / 15 min

1.75

61%

Takedown defense

80%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.44Δ 1.93 — meaningful gap-1.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie SaenzAugusto Mendes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Saenz(10 fights)Augusto Mendes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -103.7|Blue +103.7

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +3.2|Blue -3.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -153.0|Blue +153.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie SaenzTargetAugusto Mendes

By target zone

24% acc · 40%

Head

35% acc · 79%

50% acc · 30%

Body

75% acc · 14%

86% acc · 30%

Leg

50% acc · 7%

By position

30% acc · 65%

Distance

34% acc · 71%

72% acc · 33%

Clinch

63% acc · 29%

100% acc · 3%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Saenz rounds

even

Augusto Mendes rounds

Round 1Augusto Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:51Control

Round 2Frankie Saenz edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:48

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:46Control

0Knockdowns

Round 3Augusto Mendes edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control1:45

15Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 106

Sig Strikes

42 / 109

38.7%

Sig Str %

38%

49 / 116

Total Strikes

74 / 142

0 / 4

TDs

4 / 9

TD %

52.7%

Sub Att

Rev

2:33

Ctrl Time

2:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Augusto Mendes	16 / 39	28 / 52	1 / 3
1	Frankie Saenz	15 / 40	15 / 40	0 / 0
2	Augusto Mendes	11 / 29	26 / 44	1 / 4
2	Frankie Saenz	11 / 39	13 / 41	0 / 3
3	Augusto Mendes	15 / 41	20 / 46	2 / 2
3	Frankie Saenz	14 / 27	21 / 35	0 / 1

Frankie Saenz

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights10

Augusto Mendes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights3