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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Marc Diakiese won · U-DEC R3
Elo1361
Frankie Perez
Elo1500

Frankie PerezvsMarc DiakieseUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Abdurakhimov · Friday, December 9, 2016Albany, New York, USA

Official fight result

Marc Diakiese won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Frankie Perez wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Marc Diakiese wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Perez at +220 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Marc Diakiese has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Perez
Red Corner
VS
Marc Diakiese
Blue Corner
+220
(31%)
Vegas Odds
-260
(72%)
1361
Elo
1500
37
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'10"
185.42 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie Perez
oldest →
L
KOvs Johnny Case · Jan 15
W
KOvs Sam Stout · Aug 15
L
vs Chris Wade · Jul 17
latest
Marc Diakiese
oldest →
W
vs Viacheslav Borshchev · Mar 22
W
vs Damir Hadzovic · Jul 22
L
vs Michael Johnson · Dec 22
L
SUBvs Joel Alvarez · Jul 23
W
vs Kaue Fernandes · Nov 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie PerezMetricMarc Diakiese
1.64
Strikes / min
2.54
2.17
Strikes absorbed / min
2.64
54%
Strike defense
52%
1.75
TDs / 15 min
3.29
50%
Takedown defense
66%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.53evenly matched on net striking-0.10

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1517Strikes14.0 vs 48.0Takedowns0.5 vs 1.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 1.0
Frankie PerezMarc Diakiese

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Frankie Perez(4 fights)Marc Diakiese(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -138.6|Blue +138.6
Recent Form
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Striker Score
Red +0.6|Blue -0.6
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +412.0|Blue -412.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie PerezTargetMarc Diakiese

By target zone

7
21% acc · 35%
Head
5
20% acc · 56%
4
80% acc · 20%
Body
3
50% acc · 33%
9
75% acc · 45%
Leg
1
33% acc · 11%

By position

12
32% acc · 60%
Distance
4
15% acc · 44%
1
33% acc · 5%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 11%
7
64% acc · 35%
Ground
4
67% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Frankie Perez rounds
0
even
2
Marc Diakiese rounds
Round 1Marc Diakiese edged it
Sig. strikes8
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
4Takedowns
3:29Control
Round 2Frankie Perez edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control3:01
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Marc Diakiese edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:24
3Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
3:42Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
20 / 51
Sig Strikes
9 / 34
37.7%
Sig Str %
26.3%
27 / 59
Total Strikes
38 / 66
1 / 3
TDs
6 / 13
33%
TD %
33%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:25
Ctrl Time
7:11

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marc Diakiese4 / 1212 / 224 / 60
1Frankie Perez8 / 198 / 200 / 00
2Marc Diakiese2 / 124 / 140 / 10
2Frankie Perez10 / 2615 / 311 / 30
3Marc Diakiese3 / 1022 / 302 / 60
3Frankie Perez2 / 64 / 80 / 00

Frankie Perez

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights4

Marc Diakiese

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights14