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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Chris Wade won · U-DEC R3

Elo1361

Elo1491

Frankie PerezvsChris WadeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Weidman vs. Gastelum · Saturday, July 22, 2017Uniondale, New York, USA

Official fight result

Chris Wade won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Chris Wade wins(76.0%)

Actual result: Chris Wade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Wade at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Perez

Red Corner

Chris Wade

Blue Corner

+300

(25%)

Vegas Odds

-360

(78%)

1361

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie Perez

oldest →

KOvs Johnny Case · Jan 15

KOvs Sam Stout · Aug 15

vs Marc Diakiese · Dec 16

latest

Chris WadeL2 streak

oldest →

DECvs Zhang Lipeng · Jan 15

vs Christos Giagos · Jun 15

SUBvs Mehdi Baghdad · Jan 16

vs Rustam Khabilov · May 16

vs Islam Makhachev · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie PerezMetricChris Wade

1.64

Strikes / min

1.70

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

54%

Strike defense

51%

1.75

TDs / 15 min

2.60

50%

Takedown defense

55%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.53evenly matched on net striking-0.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie PerezChris Wade

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Perez(4 fights)Chris Wade(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -129.7|Blue +129.7

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -83.0|Blue +83.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie PerezTargetChris Wade

By target zone

15% acc · 27%

Head

52% acc · 70%

54% acc · 32%

Body

75% acc · 26%

90% acc · 41%

Leg

25% acc · 4%

By position

24% acc · 55%

Distance

40% acc · 52%

50% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

89% acc · 36%

Ground

82% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Perez rounds

even

Chris Wade rounds

Round 1Chris Wade edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns2

Control2:10

10Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:29Control

Round 2Chris Wade edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:56Control

Round 3Frankie Perez edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns1

Control1:07

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:50Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 63

Sig Strikes

23 / 43

40.3%

Sig Str %

54.3%

53 / 99

Total Strikes

51 / 79

3 / 5

TDs

3 / 8

58%

TD %

27.7%

Sub Att

Rev

3:17

Ctrl Time

8:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chris Wade	10 / 14	16 / 22	2 / 4	1
1	Frankie Perez	7 / 11	18 / 22	2 / 3	0
2	Chris Wade	8 / 19	13 / 25	1 / 3	0
2	Frankie Perez	6 / 28	13 / 38	0 / 0	0
3	Chris Wade	5 / 10	22 / 32	0 / 1	1
3	Frankie Perez	9 / 24	22 / 39	1 / 2	0

Frankie Perez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights4

Chris Wade

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights7