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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Frankie Edgar won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1441

Elo1504

Frankie EdgarvsYair RodriguezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, May 13, 2017Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Frankie Edgar won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 5:00

Style matchupFrankie Edgar: WrestlervsYair Rodriguez: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Frankie Edgar wins(53.7%)

Actual result: Frankie Edgar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Edgar at -140 American odds

+$71 profit

$171 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Frankie Edgar has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar

Red Corner

Yair Rodriguez

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1441

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'11"

172.72 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21

KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21

KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22

latest

Yair Rodriguez

oldest →

KOvs Brian Ortega · Jul 22

SUBvs Josh Emmett · Feb 23

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Jul 23

SUBvs Brian Ortega · Feb 24

vs Patricio Freire · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricYair Rodriguez

3.77

Strikes / min

4.65

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

65%

Strike defense

52%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

0.71

65%

Takedown defense

59%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.87

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie EdgarYair Rodriguez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Yair Rodriguez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -63.2|Blue +63.2

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red +64.0|Blue -64.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetYair Rodriguez

By target zone

68% acc · 93%

Head

36% acc · 88%

100% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 6%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

19% acc · 4%

Distance

17% acc · 19%

Clinch

50% acc · 13%

79% acc · 96%

Ground

55% acc · 69%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Edgar rounds

even

Yair Rodriguez rounds

Round 1Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns1

Control4:03

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control4:22

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

72 / 103

Sig Strikes

16 / 42

69.5%

Sig Str %

37.5%

96 / 130

Total Strikes

29 / 57

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

8:25

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Yair Rodriguez	10 / 26	16 / 33	0 / 0	0
1	Frankie Edgar	40 / 57	51 / 70	1 / 2	0
2	Yair Rodriguez	6 / 16	13 / 24	0 / 0	1
2	Frankie Edgar	32 / 46	45 / 60	0 / 1	0

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Yair Rodriguez

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights15