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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Frankie Edgar won · U-DEC R5
Elo1441
Frankie Edgar
Elo1492

Frankie EdgarvsUrijah FaberUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber · Saturday, May 16, 2015Manila, Philippines

Official fight result

Frankie Edgar won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupFrankie Edgar: WrestlervsUrijah Faber: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Urijah Faber wins(54.0%)

Actual result: Frankie Edgar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Urijah Faber at +425 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar
Red Corner
VS
Urijah Faber
Blue Corner
-550
(85%)
Vegas Odds
+425
(19%)
1441
Elo
1492
44
Age
47
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21
L
KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22
latest
Urijah Faber
oldest →
L
vs Dominick Cruz · Jun 16
L
vs Jimmie Rivera · Sep 16
W
vs Brad Pickett · Dec 16
W
KOvs Ricky Simon · Jul 19
L
KOvs Peter Yan · Dec 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricUrijah Faber
3.77
Strikes / min
2.65
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
2.59
65%
Strike defense
64%
2.29
TDs / 15 min
1.54
65%
Takedown defense
58%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1552 vs 1582Strikes64.2 vs 39.5Takedowns3.3 vs 1.6Sub Atts0.47 vs 0.73Form0.8 vs 0.7
Frankie EdgarUrijah Faber

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Urijah Faber(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -51.3|Blue +51.3
Recent Form
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Striker Score
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetUrijah Faber

By target zone

40
20% acc · 48%
Head
34
27% acc · 71%
15
52% acc · 18%
Body
11
58% acc · 23%
28
88% acc · 34%
Leg
3
100% acc · 6%

By position

61
27% acc · 73%
Distance
45
31% acc · 94%
20
69% acc · 24%
Clinch
3
75% acc · 6%
2
100% acc · 2%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Frankie Edgar rounds
0
even
0
Urijah Faber rounds
Round 1Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:37
11Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:00
12Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns3
Control2:03
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes18
Takedowns1
Control0:36
9Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns1
Control0:28
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
83 / 258
Sig Strikes
48 / 147
32%
Sig Str %
32.6%
91 / 266
Total Strikes
50 / 149
5 / 13
TDs
0 / 3
31.3%
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
3:44
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Urijah Faber11 / 2912 / 300 / 10
1Frankie Edgar16 / 4419 / 470 / 10
2Urijah Faber12 / 3812 / 380 / 00
2Frankie Edgar16 / 5416 / 540 / 00
3Urijah Faber6 / 177 / 180 / 00
3Frankie Edgar16 / 4519 / 483 / 70
4Frankie Edgar18 / 5318 / 531 / 20
4Urijah Faber9 / 289 / 280 / 20
5Urijah Faber10 / 3510 / 350 / 00
5Frankie Edgar17 / 6219 / 641 / 30

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights22

Urijah Faber

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights18