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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Marlon Vera won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1441

Elo1475

Frankie EdgarvsMarlon VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Saturday, November 6, 2021New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Marlon Vera won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 3:50

Style matchupFrankie Edgar: WrestlervsMarlon Vera: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Marlon Vera wins(60.7%)

Actual result: Marlon Vera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marlon Vera at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Frankie Edgar has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar

Red Corner

Marlon Vera

Blue Corner

+160

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1441

Elo

1475

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL2 streak

oldest →

vs Max Holloway · Jul 19

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21

KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22

latest

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricMarlon Vera

3.77

Strikes / min

4.18

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

5.34

65%

Strike defense

50%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

0.47

65%

Takedown defense

71%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 2.11 — meaningful gap-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie EdgarMarlon Vera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Marlon Vera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -33.9|Blue +33.9

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +133.0|Blue -133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetMarlon Vera

By target zone

52% acc · 63%

Head

46% acc · 68%

78% acc · 27%

Body

85% acc · 25%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

75% acc · 7%

By position

55% acc · 73%

Distance

54% acc · 85%

0% acc

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

86% acc · 27%

Ground

52% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Edgar rounds

even

Marlon Vera rounds

Round 1Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns1

Control3:06

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control1:14

32Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns1

Control0:05

Knockdowns0

38Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 155

Sig Strikes

88 / 164

61.3%

Sig Str %

53%

138 / 202

Total Strikes

110 / 187

3 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

36%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:25

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marlon Vera	18 / 35	36 / 54	0 / 0	1
1	Frankie Edgar	35 / 45	67 / 80	1 / 3	0
2	Marlon Vera	32 / 65	36 / 69	0 / 0	0
2	Frankie Edgar	27 / 47	39 / 59	1 / 4	0
3	Marlon Vera	38 / 64	38 / 64	0 / 0	0
3	Frankie Edgar	32 / 63	32 / 63	1 / 2	0

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26