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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Frankie Edgar won · U-DEC R3

Elo1441

Elo1473

Frankie EdgarvsJeremy StephensUFC Prediction Result

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · Saturday, November 12, 2016New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Frankie Edgar won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrankie Edgar: WrestlervsJeremy Stephens: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Frankie Edgar wins(68.8%)

Actual result: Frankie Edgar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Edgar at -325 American odds

+$31 profit

$131 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Jeremy Stephens enters on a 5-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar

Red Corner

Jeremy Stephens

Blue Corner

-325

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1441

Elo

1473

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21

KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21

KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22

latest

Jeremy StephensL5 streak

oldest →

vs Yair Rodriguez · Oct 19

KOvs Calvin Kattar · May 20

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Jul 21

vs Mason Jones · May 25

SUBvs King Green · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricJeremy Stephens

3.77

Strikes / min

3.13

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.25

65%

Strike defense

57%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

1.10

65%

Takedown defense

61%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 1.07 — meaningful gap-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie EdgarJeremy Stephens

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Jeremy Stephens(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.9|Blue +31.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.6|Blue -1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -41.0|Blue +41.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetJeremy Stephens

By target zone

47% acc · 73%

Head

17% acc · 70%

78% acc · 18%

Body

80% acc · 12%

80% acc · 10%

Leg

75% acc · 18%

By position

51% acc · 83%

Distance

18% acc · 76%

75% acc · 8%

Clinch

78% acc · 21%

57% acc · 10%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Edgar rounds

even

Jeremy Stephens rounds

Round 1Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control1:16

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns2

Control1:28

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control2:04

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

40 / 76

Sig Strikes

33 / 146

49.7%

Sig Str %

20.7%

45 / 81

Total Strikes

41 / 154

5 / 14

TDs

0 / 0

40.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:48

Ctrl Time

0:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jeremy Stephens	5 / 39	6 / 40	0 / 0	0
1	Frankie Edgar	6 / 20	7 / 21	1 / 6	0
2	Jeremy Stephens	20 / 60	22 / 62	0 / 0	0
2	Frankie Edgar	20 / 30	21 / 31	2 / 5	2
3	Jeremy Stephens	8 / 47	13 / 52	0 / 0	1
3	Frankie Edgar	14 / 26	17 / 29	2 / 3	0

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Jeremy Stephens

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights27