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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Frankie Edgar won · KO/TKO R4

Elo1441

Elo1491

Frankie EdgarvsGray MaynardUFC Prediction Result

UFC 136: Edgar vs Maynard 3 · Saturday, October 8, 2011Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Frankie Edgar won

KO/TKO · Round 4 · 3:54

Style matchupFrankie Edgar: WrestlervsGray Maynard: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Gray Maynard wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Frankie Edgar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gray Maynard at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Gray Maynard has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar

Red Corner

Gray Maynard

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1441

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21

KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21

KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22

latest

Gray Maynard

oldest →

vs Alexander Yakovlev · Apr 15

vs Fernando Bruno · Jul 16

vs Ryan Hall · Dec 16

vs Teruto Ishihara · Jul 17

KOvs Nik Lentz · Oct 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricGray Maynard

3.77

Strikes / min

1.92

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

65%

Strike defense

66%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

2.91

65%

Takedown defense

81%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap-0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie EdgarGray Maynard

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Gray Maynard(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -50.6|Blue +50.6

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetGray Maynard

By target zone

28% acc · 64%

Head

23% acc · 86%

41% acc · 15%

Body

44% acc · 10%

76% acc · 21%

Leg

67% acc · 5%

By position

34% acc · 93%

Distance

21% acc · 76%

25% acc · 2%

Clinch

57% acc · 19%

75% acc · 5%

Ground

67% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Edgar rounds

even

Gray Maynard rounds

Round 1Gray Maynard edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:12

Knockdowns0

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:00

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 176

Sig Strikes

42 / 170

34.8%

Sig Str %

21.8%

64 / 179

Total Strikes

52 / 180

0 / 11

TDs

0 / 2

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gray Maynard	24 / 64	33 / 73	0 / 0
1	Frankie Edgar	11 / 34	11 / 34	0 / 5
2	Frankie Edgar	13 / 52	13 / 52	0 / 1
2	Gray Maynard	5 / 30	5 / 30	0 / 0
3	Gray Maynard	8 / 47	9 / 48	0 / 0
3	Frankie Edgar	16 / 40	19 / 43	0 / 2
4	Gray Maynard	5 / 29	5 / 29	0 / 2
4	Frankie Edgar	21 / 50	21 / 50	0 / 3

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Gray Maynard

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11