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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Frankie Edgar won · U-DEC R3

Elo1441

Elo1516

Frankie EdgarvsCub SwansonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Saturday, April 21, 2018Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Frankie Edgar won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrankie Edgar: WrestlervsCub Swanson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Cub Swanson wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Frankie Edgar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cub Swanson at +235 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Cub Swanson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Frankie Edgar has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar

Red Corner

Cub Swanson

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1441

Elo

1516

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21

KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21

KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22

latest

Cub SwansonW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23

vs Andre Fili · Jun 24

KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24

KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricCub Swanson

3.77

Strikes / min

4.84

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.99

65%

Strike defense

59%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

1.00

65%

Takedown defense

63%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie EdgarCub Swanson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Cub Swanson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -75.2|Blue +75.2

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.3|Blue -1.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -84.0|Blue +84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetCub Swanson

By target zone

31% acc · 57%

Head

29% acc · 67%

60% acc · 10%

Body

73% acc · 23%

95% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

41% acc · 90%

Distance

34% acc · 88%

60% acc · 10%

Clinch

75% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Edgar rounds

even

Cub Swanson rounds

Round 1Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:14

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:37

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

58 / 136

Sig Strikes

48 / 130

42.7%

Sig Str %

36.7%

60 / 139

Total Strikes

50 / 132

0 / 8

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:51

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Cub Swanson	13 / 42	14 / 43	0 / 0
1	Frankie Edgar	16 / 43	17 / 44	0 / 3
2	Cub Swanson	18 / 50	18 / 50	0 / 0
2	Frankie Edgar	21 / 53	21 / 53	0 / 3
3	Cub Swanson	17 / 38	18 / 39	0 / 0
3	Frankie Edgar	21 / 40	22 / 42	0 / 2

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights25