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Featherweight
5 Rounds
Frankie Edgar won · SUB R5
Elo1441
Frankie Edgar
Elo1516
Cub Swanson

Frankie EdgarvsCub SwansonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swanson · Saturday, November 22, 2014Austin, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Frankie Edgar won

SUB · Round 5 · 4:56

Style matchupFrankie Edgar: WrestlervsCub Swanson: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Cub Swanson wins(65.9%)

Actual result: Frankie Edgar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Cub Swanson at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Cub Swanson is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Frankie Edgar has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar
Red Corner
VS
Cub Swanson
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1441
Elo
1516
44
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21
L
KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22
latest
Cub SwansonW2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Jonathan Martinez · Oct 22
W
vs Hakeem Dawodu · Aug 23
L
vs Andre Fili · Jun 24
W
KOvs Billy Quarantillo · Dec 24
W
KOvs Nate Landwehr · Apr 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricCub Swanson
3.77
Strikes / min
4.84
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
3.99
65%
Strike defense
59%
2.29
TDs / 15 min
1.00
65%
Takedown defense
63%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1533 vs 1582Strikes62.4 vs 43.1Takedowns3.1 vs 0.9Sub Atts0.38 vs 0.14Form0.5 vs 1.0
Frankie EdgarCub Swanson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Cub Swanson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -75.2|Blue +75.2
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red +1.8|Blue -1.8
Grappler Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Layoff
Red -8.0|Blue +8.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetCub Swanson

By target zone

77
43% acc · 83%
Head
25
32% acc · 81%
15
83% acc · 16%
Body
3
100% acc · 10%
1
25% acc · 1%
Leg
3
75% acc · 10%

By position

24
23% acc · 26%
Distance
28
35% acc · 90%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
0% acc
69
72% acc · 74%
Ground
3
75% acc · 10%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

5
Frankie Edgar rounds
0
even
0
Cub Swanson rounds
Round 1Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns2
Control0:28
15Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control3:31
6Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes14
Takedowns1
Control4:21
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 4Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes21
Takedowns2
Control3:53
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns1
Control3:57
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
93 / 202
Sig Strikes
31 / 86
47.4%
Sig Str %
48%
259 / 405
Total Strikes
62 / 119
7 / 13
TDs
0 / 0
64.6%
TD %
—
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
16:10
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Cub Swanson15 / 4616 / 470 / 00
1Frankie Edgar13 / 6030 / 772 / 50
2Cub Swanson6 / 1524 / 340 / 00
2Frankie Edgar12 / 3042 / 711 / 30
3Cub Swanson2 / 29 / 100 / 00
3Frankie Edgar14 / 2854 / 751 / 10
4Frankie Edgar21 / 3872 / 1022 / 20
4Cub Swanson5 / 147 / 160 / 00
5Cub Swanson3 / 96 / 120 / 00
5Frankie Edgar33 / 4661 / 801 / 22

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights22

Cub Swanson

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights25