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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Chris Gutierrez won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1441
Frankie Edgar
Elo1508

Frankie EdgarvsChris GutierrezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Saturday, November 12, 2022New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Chris Gutierrez won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:01

Style matchupFrankie Edgar: WrestlervsChris Gutierrez: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Chris Gutierrez wins(85.4%)

Actual result: Chris Gutierrez wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Chris Gutierrez at -250 American odds

+$40 profit

$140 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar
Red Corner
VS
Chris Gutierrez
Blue Corner
+210
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-250
(71%)
1441
Elo
1508
44
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 19
L
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21
latest
Chris Gutierrez
oldest →
W
vs Alatengheili · Oct 23
L
vs Song Yadong · Dec 23
W
vs Quang Le · Aug 24
W
vs John Castaneda · Apr 25
L
vs Farid Basharat · Oct 25
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricChris Gutierrez
3.77
Strikes / min
4.40
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
2.65
65%
Strike defense
63%
2.29
TDs / 15 min
0.30
65%
Takedown defense
67%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95evenly matched on net striking+1.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1553 vs 1576Strikes3.8 vs 4.7Takedowns2.3 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.30 vs 0.10Form-0.6 vs 1.0
Frankie EdgarChris Gutierrez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801493150515181530← oldermost recent →
Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Chris Gutierrez(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -66.9|Blue +66.9
Recent Form
Red -1.6|Blue +1.6
Striker Score
Red +2.3|Blue -2.3
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red +140.0|Blue -140.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetChris Gutierrez

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
6
43% acc · 60%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0% acc
2
33% acc · 100%
Leg
4
80% acc · 40%

By position

2
17% acc · 100%
Distance
10
50% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Frankie Edgar rounds
0
even
1
Chris Gutierrez rounds
Round 1Chris Gutierrez edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 12
Sig Strikes
10 / 20
16%
Sig Str %
50%
2 / 12
Total Strikes
10 / 20
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Chris Gutierrez10 / 2010 / 200 / 00
1Frankie Edgar2 / 122 / 120 / 00

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights22

Chris Gutierrez

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach67.0"
Fights14