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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Frankie Edgar won · U-DEC R3

Elo1441

Elo1521

Frankie EdgarvsCharles OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman · Saturday, July 6, 2013Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Frankie Edgar won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrankie Edgar: WrestlervsCharles Oliveira: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Frankie Edgar wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Frankie Edgar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Edgar at -640 American odds

+$16 profit

$116 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Frankie Edgar has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Charles Oliveira has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar

Red Corner

Charles Oliveira

Blue Corner

-640

(86%)

Vegas Odds

+470

(18%)

1441

Elo

1521

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'10"

172.72 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21

KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21

KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22

latest

Charles OliveiraW2 streak

oldest →

vs Arman Tsarukyan · Apr 24

vs Michael Chandler · Nov 24

KOvs Ilia Topuria · Jun 25

SUBvs Mateusz Gamrot · Oct 25

vs Max Holloway · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricCharles Oliveira

3.77

Strikes / min

3.23

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

65%

Strike defense

48%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

2.29

65%

Takedown defense

54%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

2.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie EdgarCharles Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Charles Oliveira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -80.6|Blue +80.6

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +2.4|Blue -2.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetCharles Oliveira

By target zone

47% acc · 65%

Head

27% acc · 71%

79% acc · 28%

Body

41% acc · 18%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

57% acc · 11%

By position

50% acc · 75%

Distance

26% acc · 82%

80% acc · 5%

Clinch

83% acc · 13%

84% acc · 20%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Edgar rounds

even

Charles Oliveira rounds

Round 1Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control1:45

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns2

Control1:40

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control1:36

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

81 / 146

Sig Strikes

38 / 125

54.7%

Sig Str %

30%

114 / 182

Total Strikes

59 / 146

2 / 5

TDs

0 / 4

25%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

5:01

Ctrl Time

0:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Charles Oliveira	12 / 37	20 / 45	0 / 2	0
1	Frankie Edgar	24 / 47	31 / 55	0 / 0	0
2	Charles Oliveira	15 / 49	24 / 58	0 / 1	1
2	Frankie Edgar	23 / 43	34 / 56	2 / 4	0
3	Charles Oliveira	11 / 39	15 / 43	0 / 1	0
3	Frankie Edgar	34 / 56	49 / 71	0 / 1	0

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Charles Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights36