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Featherweight

5 Rounds

Frankie Edgar won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1441

Elo1491

Frankie EdgarvsChad MendesUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGregor vs. Team Faber Finale · Friday, December 11, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Frankie Edgar won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:28

Style matchupFrankie Edgar: WrestlervsChad Mendes: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Frankie Edgar wins(57.3%)

Actual result: Frankie Edgar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Edgar at -135 American odds

+$74 profit

$174 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chad Mendes is a KO finisher (67% of wins). Frankie Edgar has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Chad Mendes has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar

Red Corner

Chad Mendes

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1441

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21

KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21

KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22

latest

Chad Mendes

oldest →

vs Jose Aldo · Oct 14

KOvs Ricardo Lamas · Apr 15

KOvs Conor McGregor · Jul 15

KOvs Myles Jury · Jul 18

KOvs Alexander Volkanovski · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricChad Mendes

3.77

Strikes / min

2.78

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

2.35

65%

Strike defense

67%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

4.13

65%

Takedown defense

100%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95evenly matched on net striking+0.43

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie EdgarChad Mendes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Chad Mendes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -50.7|Blue +50.7

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +56.0|Blue -56.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetChad Mendes

By target zone

36% acc · 69%

Head

8% acc · 20%

50% acc · 15%

Body

67% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 80%

By position

37% acc · 85%

Distance

29% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Edgar rounds

even

Chad Mendes rounds

Round 1Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 32

Sig Strikes

5 / 17

40%

Sig Str %

29%

13 / 32

Total Strikes

5 / 17

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chad Mendes	5 / 17	5 / 17	0 / 0	0
1	Frankie Edgar	13 / 32	13 / 32	0 / 1	0

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Chad Mendes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights14