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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Brian Ortega won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1441

Elo1489

Frankie EdgarvsBrian OrtegaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · Saturday, March 3, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Brian Ortega won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:44

Model Prediction: Brian Ortega wins(50.0%)

Actual result: Brian Ortega wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brian Ortega at +135 American odds

+$135 profit

$235 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Frankie Edgar has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Brian Ortega (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar

Red Corner

Brian Ortega

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1441

Elo

1489

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'6"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21

KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21

KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22

latest

Brian OrtegaL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alexander Volkanovski · Sep 21

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jul 22

SUBvs Yair Rodriguez · Feb 24

vs Diego Lopes · Sep 24

vs Aljamain Sterling · Aug 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricBrian Ortega

3.77

Strikes / min

3.84

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

6.38

65%

Strike defense

49%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

0.93

65%

Takedown defense

54%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 3.49 — meaningful gap-2.54

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie EdgarBrian Ortega

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Brian Ortega(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetBrian Ortega

By target zone

20% acc · 44%

Head

30% acc · 84%

77% acc · 37%

Body

75% acc · 12%

100% acc · 19%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

36% acc · 100%

Distance

26% acc · 68%

0% acc

Clinch

75% acc · 24%

Ground

100% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Edgar rounds

even

Brian Ortega rounds

Round 1Brian Ortega edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

27 / 77

Sig Strikes

25 / 76

35%

Sig Str %

32%

27 / 77

Total Strikes

25 / 77

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brian Ortega	25 / 76	25 / 77	0 / 0	0
1	Frankie Edgar	27 / 77	27 / 77	0 / 1	0

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

Brian Ortega

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights13