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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Frankie Edgar won · U-DEC R5

Elo1441

Elo1373

Frankie EdgarvsBJ PennUFC Prediction Result

UFC 118: Edgar vs Penn 2 · Saturday, August 28, 2010Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Frankie Edgar won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupFrankie Edgar: WrestlervsBJ Penn: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Frankie Edgar wins(78.7%)

Actual result: Frankie Edgar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frankie Edgar at +248 American odds

+$248 profit

$348 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
BJ Penn enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
BJ Penn is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Frankie Edgar has lost 50% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar

Red Corner

BJ Penn

Blue Corner

+248

(29%)

Vegas Odds

-270

(73%)

1441

Elo

1373

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'9"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21

KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21

KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22

latest

BJ PennL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Frankie Edgar · Jul 14

KOvs Yair Rodriguez · Jan 17

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 17

SUBvs Ryan Hall · Dec 18

vs Clay Guida · May 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricBJ Penn

3.77

Strikes / min

2.76

2.82

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

65%

Strike defense

56%

2.29

TDs / 15 min

1.19

65%

Takedown defense

74%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.95Δ 1.39 — meaningful gap-0.44

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frankie EdgarBJ Penn

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frankie Edgar(10 fights)BJ Penn(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +68.0|Blue -68.0

Recent Form

Red +2.0|Blue -2.0

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetBJ Penn

By target zone

33% acc · 63%

Head

22% acc · 81%

63% acc · 23%

Body

54% acc · 19%

65% acc · 14%

Leg

0% acc

By position

34% acc · 71%

Distance

23% acc · 89%

69% acc · 12%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

76% acc · 17%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frankie Edgar rounds

even

BJ Penn rounds

Round 1Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control1:48

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:22

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:14

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control1:40

6Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 5Frankie Edgar edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control2:37

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:33Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

94 / 234

Sig Strikes

36 / 146

40.2%

Sig Str %

27%

142 / 285

Total Strikes

56 / 167

3 / 9

TDs

2 / 3

33%

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

6:41

Ctrl Time

1:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	BJ Penn	8 / 25	20 / 37	0 / 0
1	Frankie Edgar	8 / 33	9 / 34	2 / 3
2	BJ Penn	6 / 43	8 / 45	0 / 0
2	Frankie Edgar	18 / 52	18 / 52	1 / 3
3	BJ Penn	12 / 48	14 / 50	0 / 0
3	Frankie Edgar	30 / 76	31 / 77	0 / 3
4	Frankie Edgar	16 / 37	32 / 54	0 / 0
4	BJ Penn	6 / 16	8 / 18	1 / 1
5	BJ Penn	4 / 14	6 / 17	1 / 2
5	Frankie Edgar	22 / 36	52 / 68	0 / 0

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights22

BJ Penn

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10