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FIGHTDETECTIVE
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Lightweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Benson Henderson won · U-DEC R5
Elo1441
Frankie Edgar
Elo1490

Frankie EdgarvsBenson HendersonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · Saturday, February 25, 2012Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Benson Henderson won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupFrankie Edgar: WrestlervsBenson Henderson: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Benson Henderson wins(60.9%)

Actual result: Benson Henderson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benson Henderson at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Frankie Edgar enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Benson Henderson (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Frankie Edgar
Red Corner
VS
Benson Henderson
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
1441
Elo
1490
44
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'6"
Height
5'9"
172.72 cm
Reach
177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frankie EdgarL3 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Chan Sung Jung · Dec 19
W
vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 20
L
KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Feb 21
L
KOvs Marlon Vera · Nov 21
L
KOvs Chris Gutierrez · Nov 22
latest
Benson HendersonW2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Rustam Khabilov · Jun 14
L
KOvs Rafael Dos Anjos · Aug 14
L
vs Donald Cerrone · Jan 15
W
SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Feb 15
W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frankie EdgarMetricBenson Henderson
3.77
Strikes / min
2.93
2.82
Strikes absorbed / min
1.79
65%
Strike defense
63%
2.29
TDs / 15 min
2.40
65%
Takedown defense
63%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.95evenly matched on net striking+1.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1553 vs 1560Strikes57.5 vs 53.7Takedowns3.2 vs 4.0Sub Atts0.36 vs 0.67Form1.0 vs 1.0
Frankie EdgarBenson Henderson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Frankie Edgar(10 fights)Benson Henderson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.7|Blue -0.7
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +35.0|Blue -35.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frankie EdgarTargetBenson Henderson

By target zone

33
25% acc · 49%
Head
50
24% acc · 57%
18
49% acc · 26%
Body
25
78% acc · 29%
17
81% acc · 25%
Leg
12
60% acc · 14%

By position

57
32% acc · 84%
Distance
71
30% acc · 82%
6
100% acc · 9%
Clinch
8
73% acc · 9%
5
71% acc · 7%
Ground
8
62% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Frankie Edgar rounds
2
even
2
Benson Henderson rounds
Round 1Frankie Edgar edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control0:02
13Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns2
Control1:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:12Control
Round 3Benson Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns1
Control0:06
15Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:21Control
Round 4Benson Henderson edged it
Sig. strikes13
Takedowns0
Control0:39
20Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 5Even round
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns1
Control0:20
16Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
68 / 190
Sig Strikes
87 / 264
35.6%
Sig Str %
32%
81 / 204
Total Strikes
100 / 277
5 / 12
TDs
1 / 1
50%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
3
0
Rev
0
2:07
Ctrl Time
0:37

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Benson Henderson13 / 4913 / 490 / 00
1Frankie Edgar13 / 4313 / 431 / 10
2Benson Henderson23 / 5829 / 640 / 01
2Frankie Edgar17 / 4326 / 532 / 20
3Benson Henderson15 / 5219 / 561 / 10
3Frankie Edgar13 / 3313 / 331 / 40
4Frankie Edgar13 / 3317 / 370 / 10
4Benson Henderson20 / 5622 / 580 / 01
5Benson Henderson16 / 4917 / 500 / 01
5Frankie Edgar12 / 3812 / 381 / 40

Frankie Edgar

StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights22

Benson Henderson

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights14