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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Frank Mir won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1357

Elo1490

Frank MirvsTodd DuffeeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · Wednesday, July 15, 2015San Diego, California, USA

Official fight result

Frank Mir won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:13

Style matchupFrank Mir: WrestlervsTodd Duffee: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Todd Duffee wins(56.5%)

Actual result: Frank Mir wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Todd Duffee at -190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frank Mir is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Todd Duffee has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Todd Duffee is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Frank Mir has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Todd Duffee has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Todd Duffee has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Frank Mir (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Frank Mir

Red Corner

Todd Duffee

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1357

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frank MirL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Barnett · Aug 13

vs Alistair Overeem · Feb 14

KOvs Antonio Silva · Feb 15

vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 15

KOvs Mark Hunt · Mar 16

latest

Todd DuffeeW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Mike Russow · May 10

KOvs Philip De Fries · Dec 12

KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Dec 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frank MirMetricTodd Duffee

2.18

Strikes / min

5.93

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.87

38%

Strike defense

56%

2.02

TDs / 15 min

0.72

54%

Takedown defense

90%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.66Δ 4.72 — meaningful gap+3.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frank MirTodd Duffee

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frank Mir(10 fights)Todd Duffee(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -133.8|Blue +133.8

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -78.0|Blue +78.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frank MirTargetTodd Duffee

By target zone

42% acc · 94%

Head

36% acc · 89%

100% acc · 6%

Body

50% acc · 11%

Leg

By position

44% acc · 50%

Distance

33% acc · 78%

41% acc · 44%

Clinch

67% acc · 22%

50% acc · 6%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frank Mir rounds

even

Todd Duffee rounds

Round 1Frank Mir edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 37

Sig Strikes

9 / 24

43%

Sig Str %

37%

16 / 37

Total Strikes

9 / 24

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:01

Ctrl Time

0:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Todd Duffee	9 / 24	9 / 24	0 / 0	0
1	Frank Mir	16 / 37	16 / 37	0 / 0	0

Frank Mir

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Todd Duffee

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4