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Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Shane Carwin won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1357
Frank Mir
Elo1351
Shane Carwin

Frank MirvsShane CarwinUFC Prediction Result

UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · Saturday, March 27, 2010Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Shane Carwin won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:48

Style matchupFrank Mir: WrestlervsShane Carwin: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Frank Mir wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Shane Carwin wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frank Mir at -150 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Shane Carwin is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Frank Mir has lost 57% of fights by KO.
  • Shane Carwin has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Frank Mir (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Frank Mir
Red Corner
VS
Shane Carwin
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+140
(42%)
1357
Elo
1351
47
Age
51
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'2"
200.66 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frank MirL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alistair Overeem · Feb 14
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Feb 15
W
KOvs Todd Duffee · Jul 15
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 15
L
KOvs Mark Hunt · Mar 16
latest
Shane CarwinL2 streak
oldest →
L
SUBvs Brock Lesnar · Jul 10
L
vs Junior Dos Santos · Jun 11
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frank MirMetricShane Carwin
2.18
Strikes / min
4.38
3.84
Strikes absorbed / min
3.53
38%
Strike defense
53%
2.02
TDs / 15 min
1.42
54%
Takedown defense
42%
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.66Δ 2.51 — meaningful gap+0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1500Strikes10.3 vs 7.3Takedowns0.8 vs 0.3Sub Atts1.27 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Frank MirShane Carwin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Frank Mir(10 fights)Shane Carwin(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +5.5|Blue -5.5
Recent Form
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frank MirTargetShane Carwin

By target zone

2
22% acc · 67%
Head
31
70% acc · 63%
1
100% acc · 33%
Body
1
100% acc · 2%
0
Leg
17
94% acc · 35%

By position

2
22% acc · 67%
Distance
1
17% acc · 2%
1
100% acc · 33%
Clinch
33
89% acc · 67%
0
Ground
15
75% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Frank Mir rounds
0
even
1
Shane Carwin rounds
Round 1Shane Carwin edged it
Sig. strikes3
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns0
49Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
2:33Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
3 / 10
Sig Strikes
49 / 63
30%
Sig Str %
77%
3 / 10
Total Strikes
74 / 89
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 2
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
2:33

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Shane Carwin49 / 6374 / 890 / 20
1Frank Mir3 / 103 / 100 / 00

Frank Mir

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights12

Shane Carwin

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights3