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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Frank Mir won · U-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1491

Frank MirvsRoy NelsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 130: Rampage vs Hamill · Saturday, May 28, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Frank Mir won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Roy Nelson wins(50.3%)

Actual result: Frank Mir wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Roy Nelson at +110 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Roy Nelson is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Frank Mir has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Frank Mir (53.5%).
Frank Mir has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Frank Mir

Red Corner

Roy Nelson

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+110

(48%)

1357

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frank MirL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alistair Overeem · Feb 14

KOvs Antonio Silva · Feb 15

KOvs Todd Duffee · Jul 15

vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 15

KOvs Mark Hunt · Mar 16

latest

Roy Nelson

oldest →

vs Josh Barnett · Sep 15

vs Jared Rosholt · Feb 16

vs Derrick Lewis · Jul 16

KOvs Antonio Silva · Sep 16

vs Alexander Volkov · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frank MirMetricRoy Nelson

2.18

Strikes / min

2.18

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

4.79

38%

Strike defense

46%

2.02

TDs / 15 min

1.14

54%

Takedown defense

65%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.66evenly matched on net striking-2.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frank MirRoy Nelson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frank Mir(10 fights)Roy Nelson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.2|Blue +134.2

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -49.0|Blue +49.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frank MirTargetRoy Nelson

By target zone

61% acc · 61%

Head

31% acc · 62%

94% acc · 35%

Body

75% acc · 14%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 24%

By position

61% acc · 30%

Distance

39% acc · 43%

69% acc · 48%

Clinch

43% acc · 57%

100% acc · 22%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frank Mir rounds

even

Roy Nelson rounds

Round 1Frank Mir edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control1:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:31Control

Round 2Frank Mir edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control2:44

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:13Control

Round 3Frank Mir edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns3

Control3:39

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 65

Sig Strikes

21 / 51

73.3%

Sig Str %

42.7%

82 / 103

Total Strikes

46 / 77

6 / 8

TDs

0 / 1

75%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:23

Ctrl Time

4:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roy Nelson	12 / 29	21 / 39	0 / 0
1	Frank Mir	22 / 35	26 / 39	1 / 2
2	Roy Nelson	6 / 16	15 / 25	0 / 1
2	Frank Mir	9 / 12	24 / 29	2 / 2
3	Roy Nelson	3 / 6	10 / 13	0 / 0
3	Frank Mir	15 / 18	32 / 35	3 / 4

Frank Mir

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Roy Nelson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights18