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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Frank Mir won · Submission R1
Elo1357
Frank Mir
Elo1355

Frank MirvsMinotauro NogueiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · Saturday, December 10, 2011Toronto, Ontario, Canada

Official fight result

Frank Mir won

Submission · Round 1 · 3:38

Model Prediction: Minotauro Nogueira wins(58.2%)

Actual result: Frank Mir wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Minotauro Nogueira at +190 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Minotauro Nogueira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Minotauro Nogueira is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Frank Mir has lost 57% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Frank Mir (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Frank Mir
Red Corner
VS
Minotauro Nogueira
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
1357
Elo
1355
47
Age
35
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'3"
200.66 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frank MirL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Alistair Overeem · Feb 14
W
KOvs Antonio Silva · Feb 15
W
KOvs Todd Duffee · Jul 15
L
vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 15
L
KOvs Mark Hunt · Mar 16
latest
Minotauro NogueiraL3 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Brendan Schaub · Aug 11
W
SUBvs Dave Herman · Oct 12
L
SUBvs Fabricio Werdum · Jun 13
L
KOvs Roy Nelson · Apr 14
L
DECvs Stefan Struve · Aug 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frank MirMetricMinotauro Nogueira
2.18
Strikes / min
—
3.84
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38%
Strike defense
—
2.02
TDs / 15 min
—
54%
Takedown defense
—
2.00
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1515 vs 1515Strikes12.7 vs 23.0Takedowns1.0 vs 1.0Sub Atts1.06 vs 1.00Form0.7 vs 1.0
Frank MirMinotauro Nogueira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Frank Mir(10 fights)Minotauro Nogueira(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +1.5|Blue -1.5
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +91.0|Blue -91.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Frank Mir

StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights12

Minotauro Nogueira

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights4