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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Josh Barnett won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1357

Elo1491

Frank MirvsJosh BarnettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · Saturday, August 31, 2013Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Josh Barnett won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:56

Style matchupFrank Mir: WrestlervsJosh Barnett: Submission grappler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Josh Barnett wins(60.3%)

Actual result: Josh Barnett wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Josh Barnett at -178 American odds

+$56 profit

$156 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frank Mir is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Josh Barnett has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Josh Barnett has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Frank Mir (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Frank Mir

Red Corner

Josh Barnett

Blue Corner

+167

(37%)

Vegas Odds

-178

(64%)

1357

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

200.66 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frank MirL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alistair Overeem · Feb 14

KOvs Antonio Silva · Feb 15

KOvs Todd Duffee · Jul 15

vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 15

KOvs Mark Hunt · Mar 16

latest

Josh Barnett

oldest →

KOvs Travis Browne · Dec 13

vs Roy Nelson · Sep 15

SUBvs Ben Rothwell · Jan 16

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frank MirMetricJosh Barnett

2.18

Strikes / min

3.20

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.11

38%

Strike defense

57%

2.02

TDs / 15 min

1.26

54%

Takedown defense

55%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.66Δ 2.75 — meaningful gap+1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frank MirJosh Barnett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frank Mir(10 fights)Josh Barnett(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.0|Blue +134.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -49.1|Blue +49.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frank MirTargetJosh Barnett

By target zone

46% acc · 67%

Head

54% acc · 50%

100% acc · 33%

Body

93% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

25% acc · 4%

60% acc · 100%

Clinch

76% acc · 96%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frank Mir rounds

even

Josh Barnett rounds

Round 1Josh Barnett edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:10Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 16

Sig Strikes

26 / 38

56%

Sig Str %

68%

20 / 29

Total Strikes

33 / 46

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Barnett	26 / 38	33 / 46	0 / 0	0
1	Frank Mir	9 / 16	20 / 29	0 / 0	0

Frank Mir

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Josh Barnett

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5