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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Alistair Overeem won · U-DEC R3

Elo1357

Elo1493

Frank MirvsAlistair OvereemUFC Prediction Result

UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · Saturday, February 1, 2014Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Alistair Overeem won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrank Mir: WrestlervsAlistair Overeem: Elusive striker

The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.

Model Prediction: Alistair Overeem wins(60.2%)

Actual result: Alistair Overeem wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alistair Overeem at -420 American odds

+$24 profit

$124 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frank Mir is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Alistair Overeem has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Alistair Overeem is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Frank Mir has lost 57% of fights by KO.
Alistair Overeem has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Alistair Overeem has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Frank Mir (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Frank Mir

Red Corner

Alistair Overeem

Blue Corner

+375

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-420

(81%)

1357

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Frank MirL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Josh Barnett · Aug 13

KOvs Antonio Silva · Feb 15

KOvs Todd Duffee · Jul 15

vs Andrei Arlovski · Sep 15

KOvs Mark Hunt · Mar 16

latest

Alistair Overeem

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Apr 19

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Dec 19

KOvs Walt Harris · May 20

KOvs Augusto Sakai · Sep 20

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Feb 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Frank MirMetricAlistair Overeem

2.18

Strikes / min

3.67

3.84

Strikes absorbed / min

2.44

38%

Strike defense

57%

2.02

TDs / 15 min

1.42

54%

Takedown defense

73%

2.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.66Δ 2.89 — meaningful gap+1.23

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Frank MirAlistair Overeem

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Frank Mir(10 fights)Alistair Overeem(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.6|Blue +136.6

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Frank MirTargetAlistair Overeem

By target zone

0% acc

Head

77% acc · 65%

33% acc · 33%

Body

100% acc · 31%

67% acc · 67%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

13% acc · 100%

Distance

70% acc · 23%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

Ground

88% acc · 68%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Frank Mir rounds

even

Alistair Overeem rounds

Round 1Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:29Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:29

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:05Control

Round 3Alistair Overeem edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:03Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 23

Sig Strikes

62 / 74

10.3%

Sig Str %

82.7%

5 / 26

Total Strikes

139 / 157

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:29

Ctrl Time

8:37

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alistair Overeem	30 / 35	50 / 57	0 / 0	0
1	Frank Mir	1 / 11	2 / 12	0 / 0	0
2	Alistair Overeem	14 / 17	35 / 40	0 / 0	0
2	Frank Mir	2 / 9	3 / 11	1 / 1	1
3	Alistair Overeem	18 / 22	54 / 60	0 / 0	0
3	Frank Mir	0 / 3	0 / 3	0 / 2	0

Frank Mir

StanceSouthpaw

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights12

Alistair Overeem

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights20