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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1403

Francisco TrinaldovsYancy MedeirosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic · Saturday, May 14, 2016Curitiba, Parana, Brazil

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsYancy Medeiros: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(80.6%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at -275 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Yancy Medeiros enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Francisco Trinaldo has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
Yancy Medeiros has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Yancy Medeiros

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1496

Elo

1403

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Yancy MedeirosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 17

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Feb 18

KOvs Gregor Gillespie · Jan 19

vs Lando Vannata · Feb 20

vs Damir Hadzovic · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricYancy Medeiros

3.13

Strikes / min

4.36

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

5.67

60%

Strike defense

47%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.33

60%

Takedown defense

73%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoYancy Medeiros

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Yancy Medeiros(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +93.6|Blue -93.6

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -36.0|Blue +36.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetYancy Medeiros

By target zone

65% acc · 80%

Head

27% acc · 71%

64% acc · 12%

Body

50% acc · 27%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

64% acc · 73%

Distance

26% acc · 76%

73% acc · 19%

Clinch

67% acc · 8%

83% acc · 9%

Ground

89% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Yancy Medeiros rounds

Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes35

Takedowns0

Control1:36

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:42Control

Round 2Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:16

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes46

Takedowns2

Control1:40

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

117 / 175

Sig Strikes

51 / 163

67%

Sig Str %

32.3%

143 / 204

Total Strikes

71 / 184

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:32

Ctrl Time

1:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Yancy Medeiros	15 / 51	17 / 54	0 / 1
1	Francisco Trinaldo	35 / 50	39 / 54	0 / 2
2	Yancy Medeiros	21 / 76	27 / 82	0 / 0
2	Francisco Trinaldo	36 / 65	36 / 65	0 / 0
3	Yancy Medeiros	15 / 36	27 / 48	0 / 0
3	Francisco Trinaldo	46 / 60	68 / 85	2 / 2

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Yancy Medeiros

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights14