Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1496

Elo1392

Francisco TrinaldovsPaul FelderUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · Saturday, September 24, 2016Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:25

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsPaul Felder: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Trinaldo has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Paul Felder

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1496

Elo

1392

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Paul FelderL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Perry · Jul 18

vs James Vick · Feb 19

vs Edson Barboza · Sep 19

vs Dan Hooker · Feb 20

vs Rafael Dos Anjos · Nov 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricPaul Felder

3.13

Strikes / min

3.70

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

60%

Strike defense

48%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.29

60%

Takedown defense

64%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.26

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoPaul Felder

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Paul Felder(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +104.8|Blue -104.8

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +15.0|Blue -15.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetPaul Felder

By target zone

33% acc · 50%

Head

19% acc · 30%

81% acc · 41%

Body

58% acc · 33%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

92% acc · 36%

By position

39% acc · 63%

Distance

38% acc · 85%

64% acc · 22%

Clinch

44% acc · 12%

100% acc · 16%

Ground

100% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Paul Felder rounds

Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control1:32

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:17Control

Round 2Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:35

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:14

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

32 / 67

Sig Strikes

33 / 84

46.3%

Sig Str %

37%

42 / 85

Total Strikes

38 / 90

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

25%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:21

Ctrl Time

0:28

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Paul Felder	17 / 42	20 / 45	0 / 0
1	Francisco Trinaldo	18 / 31	21 / 36	0 / 1
2	Paul Felder	12 / 25	14 / 28	0 / 0
2	Francisco Trinaldo	10 / 27	16 / 39	1 / 2
3	Paul Felder	4 / 17	4 / 17	0 / 0
3	Francisco Trinaldo	4 / 9	5 / 10	0 / 0

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Paul Felder

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights15