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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1490

Francisco TrinaldovsNorman ParkeUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves · Saturday, May 30, 2015Goiania, Goias, Brazil

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsNorman Parke: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Norman Parke wins(56.1%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Norman Parke at -255 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Norman Parke has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Norman Parke

Blue Corner

+215

(32%)

Vegas Odds

-255

(72%)

1496

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Norman Parke

oldest →

vs Jon Tuck · Oct 13

KOvs Naoyuki Kotani · Jul 14

vs Gleison Tibau · Jan 15

vs Reza Madadi · Oct 15

vs Rustam Khabilov · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricNorman Parke

3.13

Strikes / min

3.06

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.88

60%

Strike defense

64%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

1.98

60%

Takedown defense

77%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoNorman Parke

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Norman Parke(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.0|Blue -6.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -62.0|Blue +62.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetNorman Parke

By target zone

22% acc · 48%

Head

30% acc · 92%

69% acc · 27%

Body

33% acc · 8%

94% acc · 24%

Leg

By position

32% acc · 83%

Distance

24% acc · 68%

50% acc · 11%

Clinch

70% acc · 28%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

33% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Norman Parke rounds

Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:17Control

Round 2Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes38

Takedowns0

Control0:29

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Round 3Norman Parke edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:17

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:54Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

66 / 191

Sig Strikes

25 / 83

35.3%

Sig Str %

29.7%

70 / 196

Total Strikes

31 / 89

0 / 0

TDs

4 / 12

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:46

Ctrl Time

6:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Norman Parke	6 / 25	6 / 25	2 / 4
1	Francisco Trinaldo	19 / 61	20 / 62	0 / 0
2	Norman Parke	14 / 43	14 / 43	0 / 6
2	Francisco Trinaldo	38 / 108	39 / 109	0 / 0
3	Norman Parke	5 / 15	11 / 21	2 / 2
3	Francisco Trinaldo	9 / 22	11 / 25	0 / 0

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Norman Parke

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights8