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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Muslim Salikhov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1507

Francisco TrinaldovsMuslim SalikhovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Saturday, June 5, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Muslim Salikhov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsMuslim Salikhov: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Muslim Salikhov wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Muslim Salikhov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Muslim Salikhov at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Muslim Salikhov

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1496

Elo

1507

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Mar 20

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Muslim Salikhov

oldest →

KOvs Randy Brown · Feb 24

vs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jul 24

KOvs Song Kenan · Nov 24

KOvs Carlos Leal · Jul 25

KOvs Uros Medic · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricMuslim Salikhov

3.13

Strikes / min

3.37

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.96

60%

Strike defense

62%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

1.07

60%

Takedown defense

72%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoMuslim Salikhov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Muslim Salikhov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -11.0|Blue +11.0

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetMuslim Salikhov

By target zone

22% acc · 56%

Head

35% acc · 47%

62% acc · 41%

Body

96% acc · 42%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 11%

By position

29% acc · 87%

Distance

49% acc · 77%

56% acc · 13%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

68% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Muslim Salikhov rounds

Round 1Muslim Salikhov edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:10

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 3Muslim Salikhov edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:28

20Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:21Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

39 / 128

Sig Strikes

62 / 118

30%

Sig Str %

53.3%

51 / 148

Total Strikes

71 / 129

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

2:07

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Muslim Salikhov	26 / 49	27 / 50	0 / 0
1	Francisco Trinaldo	13 / 39	13 / 40	0 / 0
2	Muslim Salikhov	16 / 39	18 / 41	0 / 1
2	Francisco Trinaldo	16 / 48	17 / 52	0 / 0
3	Muslim Salikhov	20 / 30	26 / 38	2 / 2
3	Francisco Trinaldo	10 / 41	21 / 56	0 / 1

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Muslim Salikhov

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights14