Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · SUB R1

Elo1496

Elo1353

Francisco TrinaldovsMike RioUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · Saturday, May 18, 2013Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:08

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsMike Rio: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Mike Rio wins(79.0%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mike Rio at +290 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Trinaldo has 60pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Mike Rio

Blue Corner

-320

(76%)

Vegas Odds

+290

(26%)

1496

Elo

1353

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Mike RioL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs John Cofer · Dec 12

SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Oct 13

KOvs Daron Cruickshank · Jan 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricMike Rio

3.13

Strikes / min

1.68

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.99

60%

Strike defense

53%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

2.58

60%

Takedown defense

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46Δ 1.77 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoMike Rio

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Mike Rio(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +143.7|Blue -143.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -35.0|Blue +35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetMike Rio

By target zone

75% acc · 60%

Head

20% acc · 20%

50% acc · 40%

Body

80% acc · 80%

Leg

0% acc

By position

75% acc · 60%

Distance

17% acc · 20%

50% acc · 40%

Clinch

80% acc · 80%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Mike Rio rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:57

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:00Control

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 8

Sig Strikes

5 / 11

62%

Sig Str %

45%

6 / 9

Total Strikes

8 / 14

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

1:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mike Rio	5 / 11	8 / 14	1 / 3	0
1	Francisco Trinaldo	5 / 8	6 / 9	1 / 1	1

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Mike Rio

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4