Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1358

Francisco TrinaldovsLeandro SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · Saturday, September 13, 2014Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(51.2%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Leandro Silva

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1496

Elo

1358

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'9"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Leandro SilvaL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Charlie Brenneman · Nov 14

vs Lewis Gonzalez · Jun 15

vs Efrain Escudero · Nov 15

vs Jason Saggo · Jun 16

vs Rustam Khabilov · Sep 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricLeandro Silva

3.13

Strikes / min

2.39

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.08

60%

Strike defense

63%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

1.76

60%

Takedown defense

65%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoLeandro Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Leandro Silva(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +138.6|Blue -138.6

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -350.0|Blue +350.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetLeandro Silva

By target zone

50% acc · 44%

Head

60% acc · 58%

86% acc · 33%

Body

64% acc · 27%

100% acc · 22%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

61% acc · 61%

Distance

56% acc · 69%

83% acc · 28%

Clinch

100% acc · 31%

67% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Leandro Silva rounds

Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control2:01

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:15Control

Round 2Leandro Silva edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:18

8Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

4:22Control

Round 3Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:39

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:14Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 54

Sig Strikes

26 / 40

63.7%

Sig Str %

64.3%

67 / 86

Total Strikes

63 / 77

0 / 2

TDs

4 / 8

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:58

Ctrl Time

6:51

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Leandro Silva	5 / 11	14 / 20	1 / 3	0
1	Francisco Trinaldo	16 / 24	31 / 39	0 / 2	0
2	Leandro Silva	8 / 10	34 / 36	3 / 3	1
2	Francisco Trinaldo	5 / 10	7 / 12	0 / 0	0
3	Leandro Silva	13 / 19	15 / 21	0 / 2	0
3	Francisco Trinaldo	15 / 20	29 / 35	0 / 0	0

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Leandro Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7