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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Francisco Trinaldo won · U-DEC R3
Elo1496
Elo1476
John Makdessi

Francisco TrinaldovsJohn MakdessiUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Oliveira · Saturday, March 14, 2020Brasilia, Distrito Federal, Brazil

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsJohn Makdessi: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(62.0%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at -160 American odds

+$63 profit

$163 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • John Makdessi has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo
Red Corner
VS
John Makdessi
Blue Corner
-160
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
1496
Elo
1476
47
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20
L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21
W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21
W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22
L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22
latest
John MakdessiL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Ross Pearson · Jul 18
W
vs Jesus Pinedo · Mar 19
W
vs Ignacio Bahamondes · Apr 21
L
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Sep 22
L
vs Jamie Mullarkey · Sep 23
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricJohn Makdessi
3.13
Strikes / min
5.52
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
4.15
60%
Strike defense
68%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
0.00
60%
Takedown defense
86%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46evenly matched on net striking+1.37

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1611 vs 1564Strikes3.1 vs 5.4Takedowns1.1 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.00Form0.3 vs 0.9
Francisco TrinaldoJohn Makdessi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)John Makdessi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +20.6|Blue -20.6
Recent Form
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Striker Score
Red -1.5|Blue +1.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Layoff
Red -238.0|Blue +238.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetJohn Makdessi

By target zone

34
34% acc · 62%
Head
15
28% acc · 22%
17
77% acc · 31%
Body
16
62% acc · 24%
4
100% acc · 7%
Leg
36
84% acc · 54%

By position

53
43% acc · 96%
Distance
65
54% acc · 97%
2
100% acc · 4%
Clinch
2
100% acc · 3%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Francisco Trinaldo rounds
2
even
1
John Makdessi rounds
Round 1John Makdessi edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Even round
Sig. strikes19
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Even round
Sig. strikes24
Takedowns0
Control0:00
23Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
55 / 126
Sig Strikes
67 / 123
43%
Sig Str %
55.7%
55 / 126
Total Strikes
68 / 124
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Makdessi25 / 3525 / 350 / 00
1Francisco Trinaldo12 / 3012 / 300 / 00
2John Makdessi19 / 3819 / 380 / 00
2Francisco Trinaldo19 / 4419 / 440 / 00
3John Makdessi23 / 5024 / 510 / 00
3Francisco Trinaldo24 / 5224 / 520 / 10

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26

John Makdessi

StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights20