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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · U-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1516

Francisco TrinaldovsJim MillerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Machida · Saturday, October 28, 2017Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsJim Miller: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(65.3%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Jim Miller

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1496

Elo

1516

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Jim Miller

oldest →

SUBvs Gabriel Benitez · Jan 24

vs King Green · Apr 24

SUBvs Damon Jackson · Nov 24

vs Chase Hooper · Apr 25

SUBvs Jared Gordon · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricJim Miller

3.13

Strikes / min

2.92

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.43

60%

Strike defense

56%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

1.49

60%

Takedown defense

47%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.51

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoJim Miller

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Jim Miller(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.7|Blue +19.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetJim Miller

By target zone

34% acc · 63%

Head

32% acc · 53%

95% acc · 29%

Body

67% acc · 24%

100% acc · 8%

Leg

73% acc · 24%

By position

37% acc · 65%

Distance

38% acc · 76%

82% acc · 14%

Clinch

60% acc · 9%

68% acc · 21%

Ground

83% acc · 15%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Jim Miller rounds

Round 1Jim Miller edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:56

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:22Control

Round 2Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control1:33

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control2:13

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

63 / 140

Sig Strikes

34 / 80

44.3%

Sig Str %

43.3%

84 / 165

Total Strikes

61 / 109

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 5

100%

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

4:42

Ctrl Time

2:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jim Miller	15 / 24	29 / 38	1 / 2
1	Francisco Trinaldo	8 / 20	13 / 26	0 / 0
2	Jim Miller	12 / 36	15 / 39	0 / 3
2	Francisco Trinaldo	31 / 74	40 / 83	0 / 0
3	Jim Miller	7 / 20	17 / 32	0 / 0
3	Francisco Trinaldo	24 / 46	31 / 56	1 / 1

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Jim Miller

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights40