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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · S-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1437

Francisco TrinaldovsJesse RonsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Mousasi · Saturday, February 15, 2014Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsJesse Ronson: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Jesse Ronson

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1496

Elo

1437

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Jesse RonsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Michel Prazeres · Sep 13

vs Kevin Lee · Jul 14

SUBvs Nicolas Dalby · Jul 20

SUBvs Rafa Garcia · Apr 22

KOvs Joaquim Silva · Oct 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricJesse Ronson

3.13

Strikes / min

3.54

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.39

60%

Strike defense

57%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.46

60%

Takedown defense

57%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoJesse Ronson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Jesse Ronson(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +59.7|Blue -59.7

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +17.0|Blue -17.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetJesse Ronson

By target zone

21% acc · 42%

Head

26% acc · 40%

83% acc · 27%

Body

62% acc · 34%

85% acc · 31%

Leg

93% acc · 26%

By position

30% acc · 69%

Distance

39% acc · 87%

62% acc · 15%

Clinch

78% acc · 13%

100% acc · 16%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Jesse Ronson rounds

Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Round 2Jesse Ronson edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:40

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 3Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:18

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

55 / 148

Sig Strikes

53 / 126

37%

Sig Str %

41.3%

61 / 154

Total Strikes

56 / 129

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 2

16.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:58

Ctrl Time

0:36

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jesse Ronson	18 / 48	18 / 48	0 / 1
1	Francisco Trinaldo	22 / 51	25 / 54	0 / 0
2	Jesse Ronson	23 / 43	25 / 45	0 / 0
2	Francisco Trinaldo	13 / 51	13 / 51	0 / 1
3	Jesse Ronson	12 / 35	13 / 36	0 / 1
3	Francisco Trinaldo	20 / 46	23 / 49	1 / 3

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Jesse Ronson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6