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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1496

Elo1512

Francisco TrinaldovsJai HerbertUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · Saturday, July 25, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:30

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsJai Herbert: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(66.3%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at -134 American odds

+$75 profit

$175 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).
Jai Herbert has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Jai Herbert

Blue Corner

-134

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+108

(48%)

1496

Elo

1512

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

6'1"

177.8 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Mar 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Jai Herbert

oldest →

vs Kyle Nelson · Jul 22

vs Fares Ziam · Jul 23

vs Rolando Bedoya · Aug 24

vs Chris Padilla · Mar 25

KOvs Mandel Nallo · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricJai Herbert

3.13

Strikes / min

3.19

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

60%

Strike defense

52%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.42

60%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking-0.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoJai Herbert

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Jai Herbert(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -15.2|Blue +15.2

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -48.3|Blue +48.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetJai Herbert

By target zone

43% acc · 50%

Head

24% acc · 71%

50% acc · 23%

Body

80% acc · 19%

89% acc · 27%

Leg

100% acc · 10%

By position

42% acc · 63%

Distance

26% acc · 76%

75% acc · 10%

Clinch

83% acc · 24%

89% acc · 27%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Jai Herbert rounds

Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control3:15

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:43Control

Round 2Jai Herbert edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:37Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 58

Sig Strikes

21 / 70

53.3%

Sig Str %

27.7%

37 / 66

Total Strikes

37 / 90

2 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

66%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:18

Ctrl Time

3:20

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jai Herbert	4 / 14	13 / 25	0 / 0	0
1	Francisco Trinaldo	9 / 20	13 / 24	2 / 3	2
2	Jai Herbert	14 / 32	21 / 41	0 / 0	0
2	Francisco Trinaldo	9 / 22	12 / 26	0 / 0	0
3	Jai Herbert	3 / 24	3 / 24	0 / 0	0
3	Francisco Trinaldo	12 / 16	12 / 16	0 / 0	0

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Jai Herbert

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights8