← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1496

Elo1385

Francisco TrinaldovsEvan DunhamUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Marreta vs. Anders · Saturday, September 22, 2018Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:10

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsEvan Dunham: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(53.3%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Evan Dunham has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Evan Dunham

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1496

Elo

1385

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Evan DunhamL2 streak

oldest →

vs Ross Pearson · Jul 15

vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 15

vs Rick Glenn · Sep 16

KOvs Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Apr 18

SUBvs Herbert Burns · Jun 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricEvan Dunham

3.13

Strikes / min

5.33

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

3.54

60%

Strike defense

61%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

1.82

60%

Takedown defense

79%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46Δ 1.33 — meaningful gap+1.79

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoEvan Dunham

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Evan Dunham(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +111.6|Blue -111.6

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +48.0|Blue -48.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetEvan Dunham

By target zone

35% acc · 71%

Head

27% acc · 84%

64% acc · 25%

Body

43% acc · 12%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

37% acc · 79%

Distance

24% acc · 72%

57% acc · 14%

Clinch

75% acc · 24%

100% acc · 7%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Evan Dunham rounds

Round 1Evan Dunham edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control0:15

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:42

Knockdowns1

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 69

Sig Strikes

25 / 85

41.5%

Sig Str %

29.5%

28 / 69

Total Strikes

28 / 88

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

0:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Evan Dunham	14 / 41	14 / 41	1 / 2
1	Francisco Trinaldo	15 / 30	15 / 30	0 / 1
2	Evan Dunham	11 / 44	14 / 47	0 / 0
2	Francisco Trinaldo	13 / 39	13 / 39	0 / 0

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Evan Dunham

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17