Welterweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Trinaldo won · S-DEC R3

Elo1496

Elo1430

Francisco TrinaldovsDwight GrantUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Saturday, October 23, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupFrancisco Trinaldo: Well-roundedvsDwight Grant: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at -125 American odds

+$80 profit

$180 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Dwight Grant (54.1%).
Dwight Grant has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo

Red Corner

Dwight Grant

Blue Corner

-125

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+105

(49%)

1496

Elo

1430

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

6'1"

177.8 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo

oldest →

vs John Makdessi · Mar 20

KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20

vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21

vs Danny Roberts · May 22

vs Randy Brown · Oct 22

latest

Dwight GrantL2 streak

oldest →

vs Alan Jouban · Apr 19

KOvs Daniel Rodriguez · Aug 20

vs Stefan Sekulic · Apr 21

KOvs Sergey Khandozhko · Apr 22

vs Dustin Stoltzfus · Jul 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricDwight Grant

3.13

Strikes / min

3.29

2.67

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

60%

Strike defense

60%

0.98

TDs / 15 min

0.61

60%

Takedown defense

66%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.46evenly matched on net striking+0.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrinaldoDwight Grant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Dwight Grant(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +66.8|Blue -66.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -42.0|Blue +42.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetDwight Grant

By target zone

40% acc · 56%

Head

18% acc · 65%

79% acc · 31%

Body

50% acc · 23%

83% acc · 14%

Leg

80% acc · 13%

By position

46% acc · 72%

Distance

22% acc · 90%

80% acc · 11%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

75% acc · 17%

Ground

50% acc · 6%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trinaldo rounds

even

Dwight Grant rounds

Round 1Dwight Grant edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:08

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Francisco Trinaldo edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control3:37

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 70

Sig Strikes

31 / 133

51%

Sig Str %

23%

61 / 101

Total Strikes

41 / 145

1 / 3

TDs

1 / 1

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:45

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Dwight Grant	14 / 51	14 / 51	0 / 0
1	Francisco Trinaldo	11 / 20	11 / 20	0 / 0
2	Dwight Grant	8 / 48	13 / 55	1 / 1
2	Francisco Trinaldo	15 / 28	16 / 31	0 / 2
3	Dwight Grant	9 / 34	14 / 39	0 / 0
3	Francisco Trinaldo	10 / 22	34 / 50	1 / 1

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Dwight Grant

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8