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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Francisco Trinaldo won · SUB R2
Elo1496
Elo1352

Francisco TrinaldovsCJ KeithUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Belfort vs Bisping · Saturday, January 19, 2013Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:50

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at -440 American odds

+$23 profit

$123 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Francisco Trinaldo has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo
Red Corner
VS
CJ Keith
Blue Corner
-440
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+390
(20%)
1496
Elo
1352
47
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
6'0"
177.8 cm
Reach
185 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20
L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21
W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21
W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22
L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22
latest
CJ Keith
oldest →
L
KOvs Ramsey Nijem · Jun 12
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricCJ Keith
3.13
Strikes / min
0.86
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
1.82
60%
Strike defense
50%
0.98
TDs / 15 min
0.00
60%
Takedown defense
62%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.46Δ 1.42 — meaningful gap-0.96

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1482Strikes33.0 vs 5.0Takedowns0.0 vs 0.0Sub Atts1.00 vs 0.00Form-0.1 vs -1.0
Francisco TrinaldoCJ Keith

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901498150515131520← oldermost recent →
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)CJ Keith(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +144.6|Blue -144.6
Recent Form
Red +0.8|Blue -0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.9|Blue -0.9
Grappler Score
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -113.0|Blue +113.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrinaldoTargetCJ Keith

By target zone

5
50% acc · 42%
Head
2
33% acc · 67%
5
100% acc · 42%
Body
0
0% acc
2
50% acc · 17%
Leg
1
50% acc · 33%

By position

1
25% acc · 8%
Distance
1
14% acc · 33%
4
67% acc · 33%
Clinch
0
7
78% acc · 58%
Ground
2
100% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Francisco Trinaldo rounds
0
even
0
CJ Keith rounds
Round 1Francisco Trinaldo edged it
Sig. strikes11
Takedowns1
Control3:03
3Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
1:06Control
Round 2Francisco Trinaldo edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns1
Control0:56
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
12 / 19
Sig Strikes
3 / 9
50.5%
Sig Str %
37.5%
27 / 34
Total Strikes
5 / 11
2 / 5
TDs
0 / 1
41.5%
TD %
0%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
1
3:59
Ctrl Time
1:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1CJ Keith3 / 45 / 60 / 10
1Francisco Trinaldo11 / 1626 / 311 / 30
2CJ Keith0 / 50 / 50 / 00
2Francisco Trinaldo1 / 31 / 31 / 21

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26

CJ Keith

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach—
Fights2