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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Francisco Trinaldo won · U-DEC R3
Elo1496
Elo1445

Francisco TrinaldovsBobby GreenUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Saturday, November 16, 2019Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Francisco Trinaldo won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Francisco Trinaldo wins(66.2%)

Actual result: Francisco Trinaldo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trinaldo at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Francisco Trinaldo (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trinaldo
Red Corner
VS
Bobby Green
Blue Corner
-155
(61%)
Vegas Odds
+135
(43%)
1496
Elo
1445
47
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trinaldo
oldest →
W
KOvs Jai Herbert · Jul 20
L
vs Muslim Salikhov · Jun 21
W
vs Dwight Grant · Oct 21
W
vs Danny Roberts · May 22
L
vs Randy Brown · Oct 22
latest
Bobby GreenL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Rafael Fiziev · Aug 21
W
KOvs Al Iaquinta · Nov 21
W
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Feb 22
L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Feb 22
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Dec 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrinaldoMetricBobby Green
3.13
Strikes / min
—
2.67
Strikes absorbed / min
—
60%
Strike defense
—
0.98
TDs / 15 min
—
60%
Takedown defense
—
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1596 vs 1520Takedowns1.1 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.50 vs 0.30Form-0.3 vs -0.5
Francisco TrinaldoBobby Green

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Francisco Trinaldo(10 fights)Bobby Green(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +51.1|Blue -51.1
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -1.1|Blue +1.1
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -217.0|Blue +217.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Francisco Trinaldo

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26

Bobby Green

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9