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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Johnny Case won · U-DEC R3

Elo1355

Elo1361

Francisco TrevinovsJohnny CaseUFC Prediction Result

UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · Saturday, June 13, 2015Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Johnny Case won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Francisco Trevino wins(61.4%)

Actual result: Johnny Case wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Francisco Trevino at +415 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Johnny Case has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Trevino

Red Corner

Johnny Case

Blue Corner

+415

(19%)

Vegas Odds

-525

(84%)

1355

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco Trevino

oldest →

vs Renee Forte · Mar 14

KOvs Sage Northcutt · Oct 15

latest

Johnny CaseL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Kazuki Tokudome · Sep 14

KOvs Frankie Perez · Jan 15

vs Yan Cabral · Nov 15

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Mar 16

vs Anthony Rocco Martin · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco TrevinoMetricJohnny Case

2.65

Strikes / min

3.95

2.42

Strikes absorbed / min

2.66

64%

Strike defense

61%

0.97

TDs / 15 min

1.70

41%

Takedown defense

72%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.23Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap+1.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco TrevinoJohnny Case

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Trevino(3 fights)Johnny Case(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -5.3|Blue +5.3

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +309.0|Blue -309.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco TrevinoTargetJohnny Case

By target zone

23% acc · 26%

Head

28% acc · 60%

42% acc · 15%

Body

64% acc · 23%

87% acc · 59%

Leg

88% acc · 18%

By position

43% acc · 85%

Distance

32% acc · 78%

60% acc · 9%

Clinch

64% acc · 18%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Trevino rounds

even

Johnny Case rounds

Round 1Johnny Case edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:14

26Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 2Johnny Case edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:36

4Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:49Control

Round 3Johnny Case edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:27

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:38Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 74

Sig Strikes

40 / 109

50.7%

Sig Str %

32.3%

49 / 90

Total Strikes

64 / 143

0 / 2

TDs

4 / 7

TD %

75%

Sub Att

Rev

1:17

Ctrl Time

5:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Johnny Case	26 / 59	31 / 65	1 / 1
1	Francisco Trevino	16 / 35	22 / 41	0 / 0
2	Johnny Case	4 / 20	16 / 39	2 / 2
2	Francisco Trevino	7 / 10	11 / 15	0 / 1
3	Johnny Case	10 / 30	17 / 39	1 / 4
3	Francisco Trevino	11 / 29	16 / 34	0 / 1

Francisco Trevino

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights3

Johnny Case

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6