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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

John Lineker won · SUB R1

Elo1358

Elo1492

Francisco RiveravsJohn LinekerUFC Prediction Result

UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · Saturday, September 5, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Lineker won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:08

Style matchupFrancisco Rivera: Well-roundedvsJohn Lineker: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: John Lineker wins(61.2%)

Actual result: John Lineker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

John Lineker at -150 American odds

+$67 profit

$167 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Rivera has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Rivera

Red Corner

John Lineker

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1358

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'3"

177.8 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco RiveraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Takeya Mizugaki · May 14

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14

KOvs Alex Caceres · Jun 15

vs Brad Pickett · Feb 16

vs Erik Perez · Jul 16

latest

John Lineker

oldest →

vs John Dodson · Oct 16

vs TJ Dillashaw · Dec 16

vs Marlon Vera · Oct 17

KOvs Brian Kelleher · May 18

vs Cory Sandhagen · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco RiveraMetricJohn Lineker

4.07

Strikes / min

5.36

3.16

Strikes absorbed / min

4.27

68%

Strike defense

56%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

0.56

68%

Takedown defense

67%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91evenly matched on net striking+1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco RiveraJohn Lineker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Rivera(10 fights)John Lineker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -134.0|Blue +134.0

Recent Form

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Striker Score

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -126.0|Blue +126.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco RiveraTargetJohn Lineker

By target zone

39% acc · 81%

Head

45% acc · 75%

100% acc · 6%

Body

54% acc · 25%

100% acc · 13%

Leg

By position

47% acc · 56%

Distance

36% acc · 29%

38% acc · 38%

Clinch

53% acc · 32%

100% acc · 6%

Ground

52% acc · 39%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Rivera rounds

even

John Lineker rounds

Round 1John Lineker edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:14

Knockdowns0

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 36

Sig Strikes

28 / 60

44%

Sig Str %

46%

16 / 36

Total Strikes

32 / 64

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:14

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Lineker	28 / 60	32 / 64	0 / 0	1
1	Francisco Rivera	16 / 36	16 / 36	0 / 1	0

Francisco Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

John Lineker

StanceOrthodox

Height63.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights16