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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Francisco Rivera won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1358

Elo1500

Francisco RiveravsAlex CaceresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · Saturday, June 6, 2015New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Francisco Rivera won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:21

Style matchupFrancisco Rivera: Well-roundedvsAlex Caceres: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Alex Caceres wins(63.8%)

Actual result: Francisco Rivera wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alex Caceres at +125 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Rivera enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Alex Caceres (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Rivera

Red Corner

Alex Caceres

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1358

Elo

1500

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco RiveraL5 streak

oldest →

vs Takeya Mizugaki · May 14

SUBvs Urijah Faber · Dec 14

SUBvs John Lineker · Sep 15

vs Brad Pickett · Feb 16

vs Erik Perez · Jul 16

latest

Alex CaceresL2 streak

oldest →

vs Sodiq Yusuff · Mar 22

KOvs Julian Erosa · Dec 22

vs Daniel Pineda · Jun 23

vs Giga Chikadze · Aug 23

vs Sean Woodson · May 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco RiveraMetricAlex Caceres

4.07

Strikes / min

4.21

3.16

Strikes absorbed / min

3.09

68%

Strike defense

62%

1.01

TDs / 15 min

0.54

68%

Takedown defense

64%

0.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.91evenly matched on net striking+1.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco RiveraAlex Caceres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Rivera(10 fights)Alex Caceres(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -142.2|Blue +142.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco RiveraTargetAlex Caceres

By target zone

56% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

40% acc · 40%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

75% acc · 60%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Rivera rounds

even

Alex Caceres rounds

Round 1Francisco Rivera edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

5 / 9

Sig Strikes

0 / 5

55%

Sig Str %

5 / 9

Total Strikes

0 / 5

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alex Caceres	0 / 5	0 / 5	0 / 0	0
1	Francisco Rivera	5 / 9	5 / 9	0 / 0	0

Francisco Rivera

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10

Alex Caceres

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights29