← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Nikolay Veretennikov won · S-DEC R3

Elo1452

Elo1492

Francisco PradovsNikolay VeretennikovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Saturday, July 19, 2025New Orleans, Louisiana, USA

Official fight result

Nikolay Veretennikov won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Francisco Prado wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Nikolay Veretennikov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Francisco Prado enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Francisco Prado is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Nikolay Veretennikov has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Nikolay Veretennikov has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Nikolay Veretennikov has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Francisco Prado

Red Corner

Nikolay Veretennikov

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1452

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'1"

175.26 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Francisco PradoL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jamie Mullarkey · Feb 23

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Jul 23

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 24

vs Jake Matthews · Feb 25

DECvs Charles Radtke · Apr 26

latest

Nikolay Veretennikov

oldest →

vs Danny Barlow · Aug 24

KOvs Austin Vanderford · Feb 25

vs Punahele Soriano · Oct 25

KOvs Niko Price · Feb 26

KOvs Khaos Williams · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Francisco PradoMetricNikolay Veretennikov

3.68

Strikes / min

2.69

4.31

Strikes absorbed / min

3.30

54%

Strike defense

45%

0.76

TDs / 15 min

0.42

40%

Takedown defense

62%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.63evenly matched on net striking-0.61

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Francisco PradoNikolay Veretennikov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Francisco Prado(6 fights)Nikolay Veretennikov(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -40.4|Blue +40.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Francisco PradoTargetNikolay Veretennikov

By target zone

59% acc · 72%

Head

41% acc · 57%

45% acc · 11%

Body

88% acc · 38%

100% acc · 17%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

55% acc · 72%

Distance

45% acc · 61%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

88% acc · 27%

80% acc · 17%

Ground

54% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Francisco Prado rounds

even

Nikolay Veretennikov rounds

Round 1Nikolay Veretennikov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:59

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:04Control

Round 2Francisco Prado edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:55

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Francisco Prado edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control2:55

13Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:29Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 77

Sig Strikes

56 / 105

65.3%

Sig Str %

55.3%

64 / 94

Total Strikes

84 / 133

3 / 10

TDs

2 / 6

49.7%

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

6:49

Ctrl Time

2:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nikolay Veretennikov	17 / 28	36 / 47	0 / 2	0
1	Francisco Prado	7 / 9	11 / 13	1 / 1	1
2	Nikolay Veretennikov	26 / 55	32 / 61	0 / 1	0
2	Francisco Prado	24 / 43	32 / 51	1 / 3	0
3	Nikolay Veretennikov	13 / 22	16 / 25	2 / 3	0
3	Francisco Prado	16 / 25	21 / 30	1 / 6	0

Francisco Prado

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights5

Nikolay Veretennikov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights5